Happy Super Bowl Sunday! In today’s newsletter, we’ll go through some Super Bowl betting options in very unique markets. The markets that are different than your average passing, rushing and receiving yards market is where you can find some value. We’ll also have some underrated players to watch. First, let’s get an update from BetMGM.

Most bet on Super Bowl player props at BetMGM:

Fade the public or are they right?

Most bet on anytime touchdown props at BetMGM:

Most bet 1st touchdown scorers at BetMGM:

What BetMGM NEEDS to happen:

According to BetMGM’s Senior Trading Manager, Christian Cipollini, BetMGM needs the Eagles to win for the book to have a good outcome. They also need:

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Defensive Player Props

I’m going to do what I did yesterday by ranking props for each analysis with 👑

I absolutely love the defense and special teams market. It’s a market people don’t always go to because let’s be honest, defensive player props aren’t flashy. Sitting there trying to keep track of a player’s total tackles is like keeping track of how many strikes a pitcher throws in a game. You really have to pay attention and the handicap takes a while.

First, I like to start by looking at which position tends to tackle the most against each team. Let’s take the Eagles for example. Looking at their playoff run, here are the players with the most total tackles against Philly.

vs. WAS - Safety Jeremy Chinn (9 TOT) & Linebacker Bobby Wagner (9 TOT)

vs. LAR - Linebacker Christian Rozeboom (8 TOT) Linebacker Omar Speights (7 TOT) Defensive Tackle Kobie Turner (6 TOT)

vs. GB - Linebacker Quay Walker (8 TOT) Linebacker Isaiah McDuffie (8 TOT) Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (7 TOT)

Now that I know the position that dominates in tackles against the Eagles is linebacker, which duh because you have to tackle running back Saquon Barkley, I go to the Chiefs side. The Chiefs leading tackler is Nick Bolton, who just so happens to be a linebacker. He hasn’t had a great playoff so far, but he’s had GREAT playoff runs in the past:

2023: Averaged 10 TOT/game in playoffs & 13 TOT in the Super Bowl

2022: Had 9+ TOT in 2/3 playoff games including 9 TOT in Super Bowl (vs. the Eagles)

So yeah the moment isn’t too big for a guy like Bolton. Now I went and looked at how Bolton has done against the top 10 best rushing offenses in football this season:

vs. Ravens - 7 TOT

vs. Buccaneers - 3 TOT

@ Bills - 6 TOT

@ Falcons - 8 TOT

Eh, not that great relative to a total tackles prop of 7.5.

Then I looked at Chiefs linebacker Drue Tranquill, who has the team’s second most total tackles. In the playoffs this year, he’s tied for the most tackles in KC. Here’s how he’s done in the playoffs since joining the Chiefs last season.

2024 (this season) - vs. HOU (5 TOT) vs. BUF (9 TOT)

2023 - Had 4, 7 & 8 TOT in playoffs. Then just 2 TOT in Super Bowl.

Against the top 10 rushing offenses this year:

vs. Ravens - 4 TOT

vs. Buccaneers - 7 TOT

@ Bills - 8 TOT & 9 TOT (in playoffs)

@ Falcons - 3 TOT

I’ve seen Tranquill’s total tackles prop drop from 8.5 to 6.5 in the last two weeks which is a bit concerning. When I’m torn like this, I take it one step further. Time to go game-by-game. I took a look at all four games the Chiefs played against the league’s top rushers. Tranquill excels against mobile quarterbacks. It’s why he’s had his best games against the Bills (I don’t really like to include the first game of the season like KC vs. BAL. Players are rusty). It makes sense Tranquill’s prop has been dropping along with Hurts’ rushing yards.

As for Bolton, he’s a run stuffer. Against a run-heavy Eagles attack, he’ll likely be at the heart of many tackles. He’s not the fastest, but for a team like the Eagles who loves to run between the tackles, Bolton should have many chances to make plays. I’m worried about Hurts’ left knee injury. The Eagles say he’s fine, but of course they say that. If Saquon has success running the football, why risk Hurts getting… hurt? Either way, if the Eagles are running clock, the Chiefs defense should be on the field enough for there to be a lot of total tackles.

Nick Bolton over 7.5 TOT -140 👑 👑 👑 👑

Drue Tranquill over 6.5 TOT -125 👑 👑 👑

Ariel Epstein - The Prop Queen 👑
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