🏈 The Prop Queen Super Bowl Update

Happy Super Bowl weekend! Throughout today’s newsletter, I’m going to discuss some eye opening trends surrounding some of the most bet on props in this coming Super Bowl.

1. Which are the most bet on props at the sportsbook?

2. Which lines have moved the most since opening last week? (Some are pretty surprising).

3. Where each defense has struggled all season or in the postseason and how you can attack those weaknesses.

Most bet on Super Bowl player props at BetMGM:

Fade the public or are they right?

1. Dallas Goedert over 52.5 receiving yards -115 (99% of $ is on the over).

2. Xavier Worthy over 5.5 rushing yards -135 (99% of $ is on the over).

3. Saquon Barkley over 111.5 rushing yards -115

4. Patrick Mahomes over 5.5 rush attempts -140

5. Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions -135

Most bet on anytime touchdown props at BetMGM:

1. Jalen Hurts -105

2. Saquon Barkley -200

3. Patrick Mahomes +400

4. Travis Kelce +125

5. Dallas Goedert +330

Most bet 1st touchdown scorers at BetMGM:

1. Saquon Barkley +400

2. Jalen Hurts +700

3. Kareem Hunt +900

4. Travis Kelce +1000

5. Xavier Worthy +1200

Most bet Super Bowl MVP at BetMGM:

Most line movement from open to current. Remember, these came out weeks ago, right before the playoffs started.

1. Patrick Mahomes +400 ➡️ +105

2. Saquon Barkley +2500 ➡️ +240

3. Jalen Hurts +1400 ➡️ +375

Highest ticket percentage:

1. Saquon Barkley (22.1%)

2. Patrick Mahomes (10.8%)

3. Jalen Hurts (9.9%)

Highest handle:

1. Saquon Barkley (21.6%)

2. Travis Kelce (15.2%)

3. Patrick Mahomes (13.2%)

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Which lines have moved the most since they opened?

I'm going through all the lines that moved the most and ranking them on a scale of 1-5 👑  at their current number. One being bad & five crowns being great.These aren’t MY bets, I’m just rating the current number on a scale.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes:

• To throw an interception: Yes -102 No -128 ➡️ Yes +110 No -144

  • Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception since Nov. 17 against the Bills.

  • Mahomes has thrown a pick in three of his four Super Bowl appearances. The one he didn’t, against the Eagles in 2022.

  • The Eagles rank 16th in interceptions this season with 13 in the regular season. For context, the most was 24 by the Vikings. However, the Eagles have had an interception in four of the last five games. Overall this season, here’s the list of the quarterbacks the Eagles picked off:

Jayden Daniels in NFC Championship - 1 INT

Jordan Love in Wild Card game - 3 INT

Drew Lock - 1 INT

Cooper Rush - 2 INT

Jayden Daniels - 2 INT & 1 INT (regular season)

Bryce Young - 1 INT

Trey Lance - 1 INT

Trevor Lawrence - 2 INT

Joe Burrow - 1 INT

Derek Carr - 1 INT

Jordan Love - 1 INT (week one)

A lot of these quarterbacks are very young and inexperienced. Outside of Joe Burrow, I wouldn’t put any of these quarterbacks on the same scale as Patrick Mahomes. Jayden Daniels had a great season, but he’s still a rookie. You don’t think Mahomes has in his head that he’s thrown a pick in three of four Super Bowls? Please, he’s a Virgo (like me 😉)

Interception No -144 👑 👑 👑 👑

• Longest rush: 11.5 ➡️ 13.5 yards 

  • Mahomes has had a longest rush of 22+ in back-to-back Super Bowls. This season he’s had a longest rush of 13+ in 6/18 games, including the playoffs. That number goes up to 10/18 games if you got the opening number of 11.5. This is why getting the best lines matter. If you’re not tracking opening lines, the book will always bait you into a prop that “sounds good.” Then you realize, damn, I could’ve gotten a number that hits WAY more.

  • In the playoffs, the Eagles faced mobile quarterback Jayden Daniels who had a longest rush of 19 yards. In the other two playoff games, the Eagles limited two, not so mobile quarterbacks, Jordan Love to 11 yards and Matthew Stafford to a longest rush of five yards.

  • In the regular season, only three of the 16 quarterbacks to face the Eagles this season went over 13.5 yards for a longest rush. It’s worth noting the more mobile quarterbacks the Eagles faced in the regular season:

Jayden Daniels - 29 & 7 yards on longest rush

Russell Wilson - 8 yards on longest rush

Bryce Young - 11 yards on longest rush

Lamar Jackson - 39 yards on longest rush

Daniel Jones - 9 yards on longest rush

Deshaun Watson - 6 yards on longest rush

Longest rush over 13.5 yards: 👑 👑

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts:

• Rushing yards: 40.5 ➡️ 36.5 yards

  • Hurts ran for 36+ yards in five of his last six games. The issue this time, he hurt his left knee against the Rams in the divisional round. Hurts only ran for 16 yards in the Championship game. Granted, it was a blowout, but he ran 10 times against a horrible run d for just 16 yards.

  • The good news for Hurts, the Chiefs aren’t good against mobile quarterbacks. They’ve allowed the eighth most rushing yards per game to QBs this season and fifth most rush attempts.

  • In the 2022 Super Bowl, Hurts ran 15 times for 70 yards. One key factor was missing though, Saquon Barkley. The best running back in football this year.

  • The Chiefs faced two mobile quarterbacks in the playoffs. Texans quarterback CJ Stroud (6 carries, 42 yards) and Bills quarterback Josh Allen (11 carries, 39 yards).

  • In the regular season, the Chiefs allowed three of the 16 quarterbacks they faced to go over 36.5 rushing yards (not counting the last week of the regular season when no one played). It’s a high number for most quarterbacks to reach so let’s take a look at mobile quarterbacks who faced the Chiefs this regular season:

Lamar Jackson - 16 carries 122 rushing yards

Josh Allen - 12 carries 55 rush yards 1 TD

Bryce Young - 3 carries 20 yards

CJ Stroud - 2 carries 23 yards

Russell Wilson - 6 carries 55 yards 1 TD

It IS the Super Bowl. The last hoorah. I’m worried about Hurts’ knee, but if you like an over, at least it’s a better number.

Hurts rushing yards over: 👑 👑 👑

*Note on quarterback rushing yards: I’VE BEEN IN THIS SITUATION SO BE CAREFUL! Remember, quarterback rushing yards in the Super Bowl can be impacted by kneel downs at the end of the game. It will result in negative yardage which can kill your prop. For reference, Mahomes in the Chiefs-Niners Super Bowl in 2019*

Ariel Epstein - The Prop Queen 👑 
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