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Nine games in the NBA tonight. The big news of the day, Mavericks’ star Kyrie Irving is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Mavs bad luck continues. Their next game is tomorrow in Milwaukee. I know this sounds wrong, but from a betting perspective, there are some edges with injuries. I’ve included some below for tonight’s slate.
Free subscribers will get access to analysis for Rockets-Pacers. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter including games:
Bucks at Hawks
Warriors at Knicks
Cavs at Bulls
76ers at Timberwolves
Clippers at Suns
About Last Night…
Where the PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:
The points props for Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo were a bit too high for being on the second leg of a back-to-back against a Wizards defense playing well. Herro put up 16 on a points prop of 26.5, while Bam had 19 with a points prop of 20.5.
Blazers small forward Deni Avdija had a regression game against the 76ers with just nine points and a 17.5 points prop.
Hawks point guard Trae Young went over his 10.5 assists prop with 15 assists.
Collin Sexton went over his points prop of 15.5 with 16 points.
Walker Kessler also took advantage of Lauri Markkanen out, going over his points prop of 12.5 with 14 points.
Where the PQ Newsletter was WRONG:
Trae Young did not go over his points+assist prop of 35.5 as he had just 12 points.
Utah’s center Walker Kessler did not have as great of a night as usual on the boards, without Markkanen, grabbing just nine boards with a rebound prop of 12.5.
Brice Sensabaugh had a horrible game without Lauri Markkanen putting up a flat 0.
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 Rockets at Pacers - 7 PM ET
Rocket Bigs on 2nd Leg of Back-to-Back
The Rockets faced the best team in the West last night, the Thunder, losing 137-128 in OKC. Now they’re at the Pacers who allow the 10th most points per game to their opponents. Houston bigs Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson did not play last night, so they’ll have fresh legs going into tonight. Here’s how they perform against bottom 10 defenses:
HOU BIGS VS B10 DEF | SENGUN | THOMPSON |
|---|---|---|
OVERALL WHEN PLAYING TOGETHER: | 14 GAMES 21.5 PPG 11.6 REB 5.3 AST | 14 GAMES 12.7 PPG 8.1 REB 3.4 AST |
ON ROAD WHEN PLAYING TOGETHER: | 7 GAMES 21.7 PPG 11.1 REB 6.9 AST | 7 GAMES 15.6 PPG 10.1 REB 3.4 AST |
PROPS | PTS 20.5 REB 10.5 AST 4.5 | PTS 15.5 REB 8.5 AST 5.5 |
I know they both didn’t play yesterday, but in case you do want their numbers on a second leg of a back-to-back ⤵️
HOU BIGS ON 2ND LEG OF B2B | SENGUN | THOMPSON |
|---|---|---|
OVERALL WHEN PLAYING TOGETHER | 12 GAMES 19.5 PPG 10.3 REB 3.8 AST | 12 GAMES 14.4 PPG 8.5 REB 2.5 AST |
OVERALL TOGETHER VS. B10 DEFENSE | 3 GAMES 24 PPG 13 REB 4 AST | 3 GAMES 15.3 PPG 7.3 REB 2 AST |
2ND LEG OF B2B TOGETHER ON THE ROAD: | 7 GAMES 18.3 PPG 9.4 REB 4.3 AST | 7 GAMES 14.6 PPG 8.3 REB 2.7 AST |
The edge seems to be with Sengun tonight as he’s averaging over his points, rebounds and assists against bottom 10 defenses like Indiana. Small sample size, but just saying, there was one other time this year where the Rockets played the first leg of a back-to-back without Sengun then he played the second leg: Sengun had 24 pts, 20 rebounds and 4 assists.
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