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The NBA has been an absolute nightmare to handicap recently. There are so many “injuries” it’s hard to know who’s in and out anymore. In this morning’s premium newsletter I provided stats for Jerami Grant and Kel’el Ware who were later announced out tonight. There are a lot of other injuries to be aware of as well:
Domantas Sabonis is out for the Kings. We’ll see Jonas Valanciunas on the floor for the first time without Sabonis in Sacramento.
Kel’el Ware is out, but Bam Adebayo doesn’t have great numbers on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Nearly everyone outside of Jalen Green has an injury designation on the Rockets.
The same goes for the Jazz where Lauri Markkanen is out and Collin Sexton and John Collins are questionable.
Free subscribers will get access to a Wizards at Heat. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter including games:
Blazers at Sixers
Hawks at Grizzlies
Pistons at Jazz
About Last Night…
Where the PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:
Donovan Clingan got into foul trouble and went under his 8.5 points prop against the Cavs. The Cavs have limited five of their last six opposing centers to under 10 points.
Evan Mobley’s prop depended on what number you got. It dropped from 20.5 to 19.5 before the game tipped off. He ended up with 20.
Zach Collins went over his points prop of 14.5/15.5 with 16 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went over his 6.5 assists prop with 8.
Where the PQ Newsletter was WRONG:
Two Cavs props lost by one: Allen over 10.5 rebounds, he had 10 & Garland over 7.5 assists. He had 7.
Isaiah Hartenstein did not go over his 11.5 rebounds. He had 11.
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 Wizards at Heat - 7:30 PM ET
Heat on 2nd Leg of Back-to-Back
Here are how the two key Heat players have done on a second leg:
HEAT 2ND LEG OF B2B | HERRO | BAM |
|---|---|---|
OVERALL | 11 GAMES 23.5 PPG 6.2 REB 4.9 AST | 10 GAMES 15.1 PPG 9.5 REB 3.7 AST |
PROPS | PTS 26.5 REB 5.5 AST 6.5 | PTS 19.5 🔼 20.5 REB 11.5 🔽 10.5 AST 3.5 🔼 4.5 |
Since the All Star break, the Wizards are limiting their opponents to the fourth least points per game. Based on these numbers, they’re all too high for Herro’s and Bam’s props. I’d lean under more on Herro than Bam since Bam has the size advantage over the Wizards. Bam had an excellent game in DC on Nov. 2nd with 32 points ,14 rebounds and 2 assists. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? You decide. I get nervous about the same game plan twice.
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