🏀 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Hi PQ Subscribers! Below are some helpful charts and trends for handicapping your NBA props tonight. HUGE matchup between the Thunder and Celtics. Is this an NBA Finals preview? I was trying to wait and get official word on Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis, he’s questionable again with an illness, but he participated in shootaround this morning and his props are out. I’m going to act like he’s in.

Free subscribers will get access to a Hornets at Hawks. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter including games:

Thunder at Celtics

76ers at Raptors

Clippers at Heat

Suns at Rockets

About Last Night…

Where the PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:

• Evan Mobley went over his points prop with 21 points against the Nets yesterday.

• Nic Claxton had just 4 rebounds on a 7.5 rebounds prop. I don’t like to bet the same thing happening twice in a row when teams play two games within a couple of weeks of each other. Claxton had 9 rebounds against Cleveland on Feb. 20th.

• Cade Cunningham went over his 14.5 rebounds+assists prop with 18. He also went over his 5.5 rebounds prop with 8 and 8.5 assist prop with 10.

• Pistons center Jalen Duren went over his 11.5 rebound prop grabbing 13 boards against the Wizards.

• Pacers center Myles Turner’s rebound prob was too high. He went under 6.5 rebounds with 6.

• Pacers power forward Pascal Siakam went over his 6.5 rebounds prop with 12.

• Pacers point guard Andrew Nembhard went over his 10.5 points prop with 12 points.

• Clippers center Ivica Zubac just went over his 18.5 points prop posting 19 points. The newsletter said it would be a close one 😅 

• Clippers small forward Kawhi Leonard went over his 5.5 rebounds prop with 8.

Where the PQ Newsletter was WRONG:

• Tobias Harris did not go over his rebounds prop of 14.5. He had just 12 points against the Wizards. Like I said in the newsletter, whatever didn’t hit yesterday, probably hits in tomorrow’s rematch.

• Clippers guard James Harden did not go over his 25.5 points prop missing by one bucket with 25 points. The average was spot on though. He’s put up 25+ in four of the five games without Powell against teams bottom 10 in PAIP. Unfortunately, the book had the perfect 25.5 number. Harden also went way over his assist prop of 9.5 with 17 assists. I probably have to stop with fading his assists.

• Kawhi Leonard did in fact have the big scoring night for the Clippers going over his 23.5 points prop with 29 points.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Hornets at Hawks - 7:30 PM ET

Hornets vs. Bottom 10 Defenses

The Charlotte Hornets get the Atlanta Hawks tonight who allow the fourth most points per game this season. When the Hornets have LaMelo Ball on the floor, here’s how their starters do against bad defenses:

Here are the leading scorers in the last five games against the Hawks:

vs. PHI: (G) Quentin Grimes 35 pts

vs. IND: (PF) Pascal Siakam 23 pts

vs. IND: (PF) Pascal Siakam 35 pts

vs. MIL: (PF) Giannis Antetokounmpo 26 pts & PG Damian Lillard 23 pts

@ MEM: (SG) Desmond Bane 35 pts

I usually don’t like taking high numbers on star players, but this chart indicates LaMelo Ball’s prop is low. I love that LaMelo’s road numbers improve in these spots as well.

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