🏀 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Hi subscribers! There are only four games tonight in the NBA. I’ve provided prop analysis for all of them. I was trying to wait to as close to tip off for injury announcements. It appears Giannis and Dame are probable for the Bucks; however, both do have day-to-day injury designations. Everyone else should be good to go for tonight!

Free subscribers will get access to a Nets at Cavs. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter including games:

Wizards at Pistons

Bucks at Pacers

Clippers at Pelicans

About Last Night…

Where the PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:

• Heat center Bam Adebayo went over his assists prop of 3.5 with 8 assists.

• According to yesterday’s chart, Quentin Grimes always puts up 20+ in games without Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey. Grimes went over his 17.5 points prop with 35 points.

• Rockets guard Jalen Green went over his 4.5 rebounds prop grabbing 7 boards.

• Suns center Nick Richards went over his 8.5 rebounds prop with 12.

• Another guard dominates the Suns as Ja Morant goes off for 29 points, 4 rebounds and 12 assists.

Where the PQ Newsletter was WRONG:

• Heat center Kel’el Ware did not have a good night with just 2 points in 23 minutes.

• Hawks power forward Onyeka Okongwu was one bucket short of going over his 15.5 points prop. He ended up with 15.

• 76ers center Guerschon Yabusele did not have a good night with Drummond out. He only had 7 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists. Yabusele did miss some time in yesterday’s game going to the locker room. He did end up returning.

• Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns did not go over his 12.5 rebounds prop. he had 9 last night.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Nets at Cavs - 7 PM ET

Claxton vs. Trees

I don’t love much in this game. There are some conflicting numbers for Nic Claxton. For example, against teams top 10 in rebounds allowed (aka allowing the least rebounds to their opponents) Claxton averages 9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists in 20 games. When the Nets are on the second leg of a back-to-back, Claxton’s numbers go up averaging 9.3 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.9 assists through nine back ends of B2Bs.

Claxton’s points and rebounds props are 7.5. He just had nine rebounds against the Cavs on Feb. 20th. I don’t like to repeat the same prop hitting in a matchup that recently happened. Plus, it’s the Cavs, who have been top 10 in rebounds allowed all year. The only reason I’d see Claxton’s rebounds go up today is because of the Nets missing a lot of shots on tired legs. They just beat the Lakers last night 111-108.

Looking at how opposing bigs do against the Nets on a second leg of a back-to-back, here are the numbers:

The last time the Nets faced the Cavs on the back end of a back-to-back, Mobley went 23-16-1 and Allen 4-3-0. Here are all games this year where the Trees faced Brooklyn:

11/9 vs. BRK: Mobley 23-16-1 & Allen 4-3-0

12/16 @ BRK: Mobley 21-5-2 & Allen 12-8-4

2/20 @ BRK: Mobley 18-13-1 & Allen 16-20-0

Mobley definitely has the better matchup against the Nets. Brooklyn has one big, Claxton, and he’ll guard Allen. It’s a complete mismatch regardless of who else will be on Mobley.

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