🏀 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Afternoon Basketball Edition

Hey subscribers! It’s a huge slate in the NBA tonight. What’s changed since this morning’s premium newsletter? Well, Tyrese Maxey was the only 76ers player to have props posted this morning and now he’s out. Typical NBA.

In case you missed it this weekend there were a few key injuries. One being LeBron James out for the next 1-2 weeks with a groin injury. With all the injuries in the NBA I’ve provided an updated list of player to know that are making progress, returning soon or still out. I didn’t include that game because we have ZERO stats to back up what the Lakers look like with Luka and without LeBron. Another wait and see in LA for that one.

Free subscribers will get access to analysis of Hornets at Heat. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter including games:

76ers at Hawks

Magic at Rockets

Suns at Grizzlies

Knicks at Kings

About This Weekend:

Injuries To Note:

  • LeBron James OUT for 1-2 weeks with a groin strain.

  • The Lakers also announce power forward Rui Hachimura is OUT and will miss the Lakers road trip with a knee injury.

  • Rockets forward Amen Thompson is OUT for at least 10-14 days with an ankle injury.

  • The Knicks will provide an update on point guard Jalen Brunson in two weeks, so he’s also OUT with an ankle injury.

  • 76ers point guard Tyrese Maxey upgraded to questionable for tonight. He’s missed the last three games with a back injury.

  • 76ers guard Kyle Lowry has a right hip injury and could return on Wednesday.

  • 76ers forward Paul George will be OUT at least the next two games with a groin injury.

  • Warriors announce Podziemski (back) and Kuminga (ankle) are OUT tonight.

  • Clippers point guard Ben Simmons is OUT with a knee injury. He will not make the three game road trip with the team.

  • Clippers guard Norman Powell is still OUT with a right hamstring injury.

  • Blazers center DeAndre Ayton is OUT with a left calf strain.

  • Kings power forward Domantas Sabonis is OUT with a hamstring strain.

  • Raptors guard Gradey Dick is OUT with a knee injury and will be reevaluated in 1-2 weeks.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Hornets at Heat - 7:30 PM ET

Heat Bigs vs. Hornets

The Heat’s addition of Kel’el Ware made handicapping props in Miami much tougher. How do you choose between Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware every night? Since the All-Star break, the Hornets have allowed the third most rebounds per game to their opponents. Here’s how Bam and Ware do when on the floor together in matchups against bottom 10 rebounding teams:

B10 REBOUNDING TEAMS

BAM

WARE

8 GAMES

20.8 PPG

9.1 REB

4.8 AST

13.3 PPG

9.6 REB

1.3 AST

3 MATCHUPS @ HOME

17 PPG

8.7 REB

5.7 AST

14 PPG

8.3 REB

1 AST

PROPS

PTS: 20.5

REB: 10.5

AST: 3.5

PTS: 9.5

REB: 9.5

AST: N/A

Last five games against the Hornets with Mark Williams on the floor:

vs. MIN: C Naz Reid 13-10-2 & PF Julius Randle 25-10-9

vs. GSW: PF Draymond Green 16-12-7

vs. WAS: PF Alex Sarr 10-3-2 & F Kyshawn George 8-4-8

@ DAL: C Moses Brown 20-11-0

@ GSW: PF Draymond Green 15-6-6

Given this data, we’re underselling Ware’s points in this spot. With Bam taking on more of the power forward role when Ware is on the floor, Bam’s clearly dishing the ball out more than his assist prop is implying. Ware is the true center and getting those put back shots. It appears others who are matched up with Mark Williams aren’t having a tough time with that.

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