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Happy Wednesday! Another big slate in the NBA tonight. There are helpful charts below helping with injuries and back-to-backs for tonight’s slate. I said this in this morning’s premium newsletter:
Yesterday was a great example of why I do this newsletter. You know how sometimes you handicap a game and the bet you left off your card ends up hitting? That happened to me a lot yesterday. In full transparency, I do not bet EVERY prop I put in this newsletter. I gather information on games and enjoy relaying that information to you.
I typically choose up to three props to bet a night. Last night, I went 1-2 in the props I BET. However, because of all the information in this newsletter, there’s still a very good chance you were profitable last night by taking the props I didn’t take.
I’ll probably relay the same message in the afternoon newsletter so bare with me. I never brand myself as a tout. I’m here to do the research for you so you don’t have to do it yourself. My hope is you use this research to make the best bets for YOU.
Free subscribers will get access to the 76ers-Knicks preview. Basic and premium subscribers can see analysis for the rest of tonight’s games featuring:
Celtics at Pistons
Raptors at Pacers
Clippers at Bulls
Kings at Jazz
Spurs at Rockets
About Last Night…
Where the PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:
Rockets center Alperen Sengun had a big night against the Bucks with 23 pts, 11 reb, 3 ast going over his 36.5 points+rebounds+assists prop. He also went over his 20.5 points prop and 9.5 rebounds prop.
Grizzlies shooting guard Desmond Bane went over his 2.5 3PM prop with 3 3-pointers made against the Suns.
Suns shooting guard Devin Booker went over his 25.5 points prop with 28 points versus the Grizzlies.
If you used the chart in the afternoon newsletter, you would’ve seen Hornets center Mark Williams averages 10 rebounds per game without LaMelo Ball. He went over his 8.5 rebounds prop with 12 boards last night against the Warriors.
Premium subscribers were the only ones yesterday who got the Luka play going over his rebounds+assists prop with 15 rebounds and 12 assists in his revenge game vs. Dallas.
Where the PQ Newsletter was WRONG:
De’Aaron Fox did not go over his 24.5 points prop against the Pelicans putting just 15 points on the board.
Hornets SF Miles Bridges did not go over his 10.5 rebounds+assists with just seven rebounds and. two assists against the Warriors.
Hornets center Mark Williams did not go over his 13.5 points prop with just 12 points against Golden State.
Max Christie did not avenge his trade to Dallas. He had just 10 points with an 11.5 points prop.
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 76ers at Knicks — 7 PM ET
76ers are without centers Joel Embiid (knee) & Guerschon Yabusele (eye)
76ers without Embiid
GAMES W/O EMBIID | MAXEY | PAUL GEORGE | OUBRE JR. | DRUMMOND (W/O EMBIID & YABUSELE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
OVERALL: | 33 GAMES 28.7 PTS 3.1 REB 5.7 AST | 19 GAMES 18.2 PTS 5.3 REB 4.9 AST | 36 GAMES 16.6 PTS 6.5 REB 1.9 AST | 12 GAMES 8.3 PTS 9.8 REB |
VS. T10 REBOUNDING TEAMS | 15 GAMES 27.8 PTS 3 REB 5.5 AST | 10 GAMES 16.4 PTS 5.7 REB 5.3 AST | 18 GAMES 15.6 PTS 6.3 REB 2 AST | 5 GAMES 8 PTS 9.2 REB |
PROPS | PTS PROP: 28.5 REB PROP: 3.5 AST PROP: 5.5 | PTS PROP: 17.5 REB PROP: 4.5 AST PROP: 3.5 | PTS PROP: 15.5 REB PROP: 6.5 AST PROP: N/A | PTS PROP: 7.5 REB PROP: 7.5 🔼 8.5 AST PROP: N/A |
The Knicks allow the least rebounds per game to their opponents. It looks like the best edge is buying low on Drummond tonight. His rebounds prop went up from 7.5 to 8.5 since this morning’s newsletter. It’s also interesting with Paul George that his prop is lower than his averages without Embiid. Although the Knicks allow the least rebounds per game, in the last five games, there have been a few games with multiple 5+ rebounders:
@ BOS: Tatum 10, White 9, Brown 8, Porzingis 7
@ CLE: Mobley 8
vs. CHI: Giddey 16, Vucevic 9, Buzelis 7
vs. ATL: Okongwu 14, Levert off the bench w/ 10
@ IND: Bryant 9, Haliburton 5, Siakam 5
I list these out because Paul George rebounds seems like a viable option against the Knicks without Embiid and Yabusele. I still like Drummond at 8.5 too.
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