🏀 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Afternoon Basketball Edition

Author

Ariel Epstein
February 25, 2025

Oooh baby it is Luka revenge game day. The sportsbooks posted lines for this game within 24 hours of his trade to LA. The Lakers welcome Luka’s former team, the Mavericks, tonight and I’ve got a VERY underrated prop to look at tonight. In fact, I’d be shocked if anyone other than my friend Hakeem thinks to look this direction (big Lakers fan).

Free subscribers will get access to the Celtics-Raptors preview. Basic and premium subscribers can see analysis for the rest of tonight’s games featuring:

Bucks at Rockets

Spurs at Pelicans

Suns at Grizzlies

Mavericks at Lakers

About Last Night…

Where the PQ Sports Newsletter was RIGHT:

  • James Harden’s assist prop of 9.5 was too high. He went under 9.5 with 5.

  • Cade Cunningham went under his 9.5 assist prop with 7.

  • Christian Braun went over his 14.5 points prop with 17 points.

  • Scoot Henderson went over his 5.5 assists prop with 6.

Where the PQ Sports Newsletter was WRONG:

  • I’ll deem this wrong even though he got hurt and played just 13 minutes, 76ers center Guerschon Yabusele had just 0 pts, 1 reb, 1 ast in Embiid’s place.

  • LaMelo Ball did not have a big night against the Kings putting up just 13 points, 6 rebounds and 9 assists. His points prop was 25.5; however, if you stuck to just LaMelo’s rebounds or assists he did go over his 4.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists props.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Celtics at Raptors — 7 PM ET

Bigs vs. Porzingis

Raptors center Jakob Poeltl is OUT tonight with a hip injury. Just a trend to keep in mind, bigs are struggling versus Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis. They’re averaging 14.4 pts, 10.3 rebounds and 2.6 assists. I’ve been taking a lot of points props under when betting bigs who oppose Porzingis.

Games Without Poeltl

In case Poeltl is out tonight, I’ve created a chart with numbers for Scottie Barnes and opposing bigs in games without Poeltl.

BARNES

CENTERS VS. TORONTO

FORWARDS VS. TORONTO

12 GAMES

17.8 PPG

7.2 REB

5.9 AST

11 GAMES

15.6 PPG

10.9 REB

2.9 AST

11 GAMES

21.7 PPG

7.8 REB

3.8 AST

PROPS:

POINTS: 19.5

REBOUNDS: 7.5

ASSISTS: 5.5

PROPS:

PORZINGIS PTS: 19.5

PORZINGIS REB: 6.5

PORZINGIS AST: N/A

PROPS:

TATUM PTS: 25.5

TATUM REB: 8.5

TATUM AST: 6.5

The edge based on these numbers would be Porzingis rebounds. He hasn’t had big numbers on the boards, but he dominates the Raptors in size without Poeltl.

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