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Happy Friday! Let’s try to get the weekend started on a high note. There are a lot of back-to-backs and injuries to look out for today. In this afternoon’s newsletter I’m looking at seven different NBA games. Each game analysis will feature prop breakdowns using:
Charts highlighting players who thrive in back-to-backs
Injuries to look out for
Which players benefit most from their teammate sitting out
Free subscribers will get access to two games of analysis for tonight. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter.
About Last Night…
Where Yesterday’s Newsletter Was Right:
76ers center Joel Embiid went under 26.5 points with 15.
76ers point guard Tyrese Maxey went over 5.5 assists with 7.
Hornets small forward Miles Bridges continues to have dominant numbers without LaMelo Ball. He went over all his props yesterday with 36 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists.
Spurs point guard Chris Paul got revenge on his former Suns teams. His numbers without Wemby continue to surpass his props going over 8.5 points with 13.
Where Yesterday’s Newsletter Went Wrong:
Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson did not go over his 28.5 points prop. Even with overtime, he had just 22 points. It was another big night for Karl-Anthony Towns posting 32. The Knicks finally got the win over the Bulls 113-111. It took overtime, but I guess third time was a charm.
Blazers center Donovan Clingan did not take advantage of the Lakers lack of size. He had just six rebounds with a 10.5 rebounds prop.
Injuries Tonight
HOU PG Fred VanVleet OUT (ankle)
MIL PG Damian Lillard OUT (injury management)
MIN PG Mike Conley questionable (finger)
MIN SG Anthony Edwards questionable (hip)
MIN C Rudy Gobert questionable (back)
NOLA C Yves Missi questionable (knee)
NYK SF OG Anunoby questionable (foot)
NYK SG Josh Hart OUT (knee)
ORL SG Jalen Suggs OUT (quadriceps)
SAS C Victor Wembanyama OUT for season (deep vein thrombosis in right shoulder)
TOR C Jakob Poeltl OUT (hip)
TOR SF Brandon Ingram OUT (ankle)
UTA PG Collin Sexton OUT (ankle)
WAS PG Malcolm Brogdon OUT (ankle)
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 Knicks at Cavaliers - 7 PM ET
BOTH ON 2ND LEG OF BACK-TO-BACK
Let’s not forget the Knicks’ numbers on the second leg of a back-to-back. Granted, the Cavs are the best team the Knicks have seen on a second leg AND the Knicks’ game went to overtime last night.
I know I mentioned Jalen Brunson last night and it lost. The numbers tell me Brunson puts the Knicks on his back on a second leg. His points prop went up from this morning’s premium newsletter from 26.5 🔼 27.5. The Cavs biggest issue recently has been against guards. Here’s how guards have done in their last five games against Cleveland:
Keon Johnson 16 pts
RJ Barrett 27 pts
Anthony Edwards 44 pts
Jordan Poole 45 pts
Cade Cunningham 38 pts
I am a little worried the back-to-back numbers in the chart below don’t give us enough sample size versus a top 10 defense. It was just one game against Brooklyn. However, with the rise in Brunson’s prop number, it’s making me think we’re onto something regarding Brunson over points in second legs of back-to-backs (especially when KAT dominates the night before). It also helps the Cavs are on a second leg too.
NYK 2ND LEG B2B | KAT | BRUNSON | BRIDGES |
|---|---|---|---|
AVG OVERALL | 33.3 PTS 13.8 REB 3.5 AST | 31.3 PPG 2.5 REB 8 AST | 17.7 PTS 2.9 REB 2.6 AST |
On the flip side, the Knicks have also struggled defending against guards on the second leg of a back-to-back. I’ll compare both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland on second legs below ⤵️
CAVS BACK-TO-BACKS | DARIUS GARLAND | DONOVAN MITCHELL |
|---|---|---|
10/26 @ WAS | 23-2-5 | 30-4-5 |
11/2 @ MIL | 11-3-10 | 30-3-4 |
11/9 VS. BKN | 20-1-6 | 22-1-1 |
11/20 VS. NOLA | DNP | 10-2-2 |
12/8 @ MIA | 23-5-5 | 12-1-5 |
12/21 VS. PHI | 26-5-4 | 19-4-5 |
12/31 @ LAL | 14-2-14 | 26-4-4 |
1/9 VS. TOR | 40-2-9 | DNP |
1/25 VS. HOU | 39-3-9 | 33-4-7 |
1/30 VS. ATL | 26-2-7 | 24-1-6 |
2/5 @ DET | 25-3-5 | DNP |
AVG OVERALL (WHEN BOTH PLAY) | 22.8 PTS 2.9 REB 7.5 AST | 24.5 PTS 2.8 REB 4.6 AST |
AVG AT HOME (WHEN BOTH PLAY) | 27.8 PTS 2.8 REB 6.5 AST | 24.5 PTS 2.5 REB 4.8 AST |
Garland’s points prop is 20.5 and Mitchell’s prop is 23.5. Based on this back-to-back chart, Garland performs much better at home on a second leg. Garland’s assist prop is 6.5 and Mitchell’s is 5.5. I lean Garland over points or Mitchell under assists.
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 Bucks at Wizards - 7 PM ET
Revenge Spot
Khris Middleton could be making his Wizards debut against his former team! Middleton was traded by the Bucks to the Wizards earlier this month. Middleton spent the last 12 seasons with Milwaukee. Middleton’s points prop is 13.5. It’s hard to say how Middleton will do for the first time on a new team in 12 years, but if you like a narrative, this is it.
Kyle Kuzma was part of that trade so he’s also getting revenge on his former team tonight. Kuzma played for the Wizards for 3.5 seasons. His points prop is 20.5 and his rebounds is set at 7.5. After just five games in Milwaukee, Kuzma is averaging 15.6 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists. The Wizards allow the most points and rebounds per game to their opponents this season. Kuzma’s props feel a bit dramatic. I’d look to boards more than points.
The Bucks are on the second leg of a back-to-back. Damian Lillard is out for the Bucks, but it looks like Giannis will play.
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