🏀 The Prop Queen Newsletter

It’s the first BIG slate of NBA game since the All Star break!

Premium subscribers got this morning’s newsletter. Hopefully you got ahead of some line moves. A prop that moved since this morning, Joel Embiid’s points prop. It went down from 26.5 🔽 25.5 points.

Other big news today, the Spurs will be without center Victor Wembanyama for the rest of the season due to a deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder. Below is a helpful chart for games, so far, without Wemby. The chart explains who steps up in his absence and how the opposition benefits.

About Last Night…

Hornets point guard LaMelo Ball racked up 27 points with five rebounds and six assists going over all props mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter. Against teams bottom 10 in points allowed in the paint, Lakers allow the fifth most, LaMelo averages 26.8 PPG, 5.1 rebounds and 7.3 assists in those spots. That’s pretty spot on to what he hit last night going over his points prop (23.5), P+A (31.5), P+R+A (35.5).

Unfortunately yesterday morning’s favorite player to watch, Mark Williams, did not come through for the Hornets. Despite the Hornets upsetting the Lakers as 12.5-point dogs winning 100-97, Williams had just 10 points, nine rebounds and two assists. Williams props were 14.5 points and 24.5 P+R.

I mentioned yesterday it would have to be Lakers Rui Hachimura or Jaxson Hayes to step up grabbing boards against Williams. Hachimura went over his 4.5 rebound prop with eight rebounds. Luka had a big night on the boards as well with 11. Maybe we can finally start at least looking towards his rebounds+assists?! TBD.

The assist props between Luka and LeBron James last night were interesting. LeBron’s number went up from 7.5 to 8.5. He ended up with 11 assists. Luka’s prop stayed the same at 7.5 with the over around +120. Luka just got over the number with eight assists.

Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter with props to watch for tonight’s slate.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Celtics at 76ers — 7 PM ET

PHI C Joel Embiid

Tough matchup coming off the All-Star break facing one of the top defenses in the NBA. Embiid is averaging 24.7 points per game in the six matchups he’s had against a top 10 defense this season. Boston’s allowing the fifth least ppg to their opponents this season. An underrated stat, Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis is limiting opposing big men to 14 ppg. Just two players went over 26.5 points against Porzingis this year:

Nikola Vucevic (32 pts) on Nov. 29th

Jaren Jackson Jr. (27 pts) on Dec. 7th

In the last five games against Boston, centers are averaging 14.6 ppg. That includes Victor Wembanyama (17 pts), Bam Adebayo (22 pts), Karl Anthony Towns (9 pts) and Jarrett Allen (17 pts). All big name centers. Embiid’s points prop dropped from 26.5 🔻 25.5 today.

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