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Six games tonight in the NBA. In this morning’s premium newsletter, I mentioned stats to look at in Bulls-Magic, Rockets-Pelicans and Knicks-Lakers. Most notably, Magic small forward Franz Wagner’s points prop went up a lot, from 25.5 to 28.5 since this morning!
There are also SO many injuries in 76ers-Celtics. I address those below. I did not mention stats or trends for Pacers-Hawks because the same teams play each other on Saturday. My approach to those situations, if you think something will hit in that game tonight and it doesn’t, then bet it on Saturday and visa versa.
Free subscribers will get access to a Bulls at Magic. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter including games:
76ers at Celtics
Rockets at Pelicans
Knicks at Lakers
About Last Night…
Where the PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:
Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen went under his 11.5 points prop and 10.5 rebounds prop with 4 points and 8 rebounds last night.
Thunder forward Jalen Williams went over his 33.5 P+R+A prop with 20 pts, 5 reb and 9 assists.
It was good to not fade James Harden’s points last night putting up a 50 spot hitting six 3-pointers against one of the worst perimeter defenses in the league.
Where the PQ Newsletter was WRONG:
Cavaliers power forward Evan Mobley did not going over his 17.5 points prop last night. He put up 16.
The chart for Mavs without Kyrie did not work last night. Klay Thompson did not go under his points prop of 16.5. He had 28. His most points scored without Kyrie and Luka.
Spencer Dinwiddie had a bad night for the Mavs with 8 points. The market even moved in his favor from a 16.5 to a 17.5 points prop. Shows you can’t worry about market movement too much.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shined for the Thunder in Memphis last night- 41 pts, 2 reb, 8 ast. He went well over all his props last night with a points prop of 33.5.
Harden did not go over his 5.5 rebounds prop. he had 4.
Ivica Zubac had a great game last night with 22 points and 11 rebounds going over his 17.5 points prop.
Trends to keep an eye on:
Zubac continues to succeed offensively without Powell. He’s averaging 21 ppg in the eight games without him.
SGA continues to dominate bottom 10 defenses averaging 33 ppg.
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 Bulls at Magic - 7 PM ET
Wagner & Banchero vs. B10 Defenses
I’m always trying to choose between Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero props when it comes to the Magic. They’re facing the Bulls tonight who are allowing the most points per game to their opponents, second most rebounds and second most assists per game. I created a prop chart showing Wagner vs. Banchero’s numbers against defenses bottom 10 in points allowed:
VS. B10 DEFENSES | WAGNER | BANCHERO |
|---|---|---|
OVERALL | 15 GAMES 25.3 PPG 5.7 REB 4.1 AST | 13 GAMES 22.9 PPG 7.2 REB 4.5 AST |
GAMES TOGETHER VS. B10 DEFENSES | 11 GAMES 25.2 PPG 6.2 REB 3.2 AST | 11 GAMES 23.8 PPG 6.7 REB 4.7 AST |
HOME TOGETHER VS. B10 DEFENSES | 6 GAMES 28.5 PPG 6.8 REB 3 AST | 6 GAMES 25.3 PPG 6 REB 5 AST |
PROPS | PTS: 25.5 🔼 28.5 REB: 5.5 AST: 4.5 | PTS: 26.5 REB: 7.5 AST: 5.5 |
What stood out to me this morning was Wagner’s numbers, especially at home. I liked him more than Banchero. earlier this morning
It’s worth noting Bulls center Nikola Vucevic is out with a calf injury. That leaves Zach Collins and Matas Buzelis. With Collins likely on Banchero, it’s a complete mismatch between Buzelis and Wagner.
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