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Happy Wednesday PQ subscribers! For premium subscribers, I added one more game for tonight’s slate from this morning. It’s a VERY contrarian play. Not much else moved prop wise since the morning newsletter except Spencer Dinwiddie’s prop went up by one point.
The big news of the day yesterday was the Mavericks losing All Star Kyrie Irving to a season ending ACL injury. In today’s newsletter, I’ll provide prop charts for Mavericks players without Kyrie and Luka so far this season. There are a few other prop charts where you can take advantage of some injury news below.
Free subscribers will get access to a Heat at Cavaliers. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter including games:
Mavericks at Bucks
Thunder at Grizzlies
Pistons at Clippers
About Last Night…
Where the PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:
Of the Rockets bigs, the edge was with center Alperen Sengun who had 25 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists. He went over his 20.5 points and 4.5 assists props.
Hawks guard Dyson Daniels went over his 4.5 rebounds prop with 6 boards.
Knicks small forward OG Anunoby went over his 16.5 points prop with 29 points. Yesterday’s “Knicks without KAT” chart indicated he had an edge in that market.
Cavs center Jarrett Allen went over his 15.5 points prop with 25 points in a game without fellow tree Evan Mobley.
If you followed yesterday’s 76ers without Embiid & Maxey chart, you would’ve seen:
Paul George’s numbers are terrible. He only had 7 pts last night going under his 19.5 points prop.
Kelly Oubre Jr. and Quentin Grimes have the best numbers without them. Oubre Jr. put up 24 and Grimes 30.
Clippers center Ivica Zubac crushed his points prop of 16.5 with 35 points.
Kawhi Leonard went under his 24.5 points prop with 21 points.
Where the PQ Newsletter was WRONG:
Sengun did not go over his 10.5 rebounds prop.
Trae Young did not struggle on the second leg of a back-to-back last night going over his 25.5 points prop with 28 points and over his 11.5 assists prop with 13.
Knicks small forward Mikal Bridges did not go over his 16.5 points prop. He had 15.
Clippers shooting guard James Harden did not go under his 8.5/9.5 assist prop. He had 15.
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 Heat at Cavaliers - 7 PM ET
Trees vs. Heat
Miami has allowed the 10th most rebounds per game this season. They’ve been better since the All Star Break though, allowing the fifth least rebounds per game. The Heat announced center Kel’el Ware out tonight. Last year when both trees played against the Heat (aka just Bam Adebayo) here’s how they did:
TREES LAST YEAR VS. MIA | ALLEN | MOBLEY |
|---|---|---|
IN CLEVELAND | 4 PTS 4 REB 2 AST | 13 PTS 10 REB 2 AST |
IN MIAMI | 9 PTS 4 REB 3 AST | 15 PTS 4 REB 1 AST |
With Evan Mobley out in yesterday’s game (rest), I’d assume he plays tonight against the Heat. In two games this season where Mobley came back after missing just one game he had very good offensive performances:
vs. CHA 23-11-0
@ BRK 21-5-2
TREES PROPS | ALLEN | MOBLEY |
|---|---|---|
POINTS | 11.5 | 17.5 |
REBOUNDS | 10.5 | 9.5 |
With Bam being a better overall defender than Ware, I see him giving Allen a harder time inside. With Ware out, Miami lacks another lengthy, mobile big to rotate onto Mobley. Bam will focus on Allen and Mobley will likely be defended by smaller, less physically imposing players. He’ll have opportunities in the mid-post and get easier shots. I’d lean Allen unders and Mobley over points.
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