🏀 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Afternoon Basketball Edition

Author

Ariel Epstein
February 28, 2025

Happy Friday! This morning I sent out the premium newsletter that included some useful charts for tonight’s slate. Since then, Jamal Murray’s points prop went up by a point. Another player prop I mentioned regarding Bennedict Mathurin no longer matters since he was announced out for the Pacers tonight.

All subscribers will get a free preview of tonight’s Nuggets-Pistons game. Only basic and premium subscribers will see the rest of the newsletter, which includes game breakdowns of:

Cavs at Celtics

Pacers at Heat

Knicks at Grizzlies

About Last Night…

Where the PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:

  • Miles Bridges had another good night without LaMelo Ball with 20 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists. Bridges without LaMelo over rebounds may be my favorite trend of the year. Yesterday’s chart also indicated without LaMelo and with Mark Williams, Bridges’ assists goes up to around six.

  • Giannis had another great game against the Nuggets with 28 points, 19 rebounds and 7 assists. Giannis went over his 47.5 P+R+A and 17.5 R+A props.

  • The TWolves without Gobert and Randle chart indicated Anthony Edwards points prop was too high and it was. Edwards had just 18 points on a 28.5 points prop.

  • Both charts in TWolves-Lakers indicated Jaden McDaniels rebound prop of 6.5 was too low. McDaniels went over with eight. The combined charts put McDaniels in the range of 6-8 rebounds.

Where the PQ Newsletter was WRONG:

  • Giannis did not go over his points prop of 29.5 racking up just 28 points.

  • The book did us dirty on Timberwolves PF Jaden McDaniels who did not go over his 15.5 points prop scoring just 15 points.

  • Luka also did not dominate in the paint like SGA did without Gobert. Luka had 21 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Nuggets at Pistons - 7 PM ET

Nuggets on 2nd Leg of Back-to-Back

This chart provides all averages for Nuggets starters on the second leg of a back-to-back. Who gets tired and who thrives?

NUGGETS 2ND LEG OF B2B

GORDON

(PF)

MPJ

(SF)

JOKIC

(C)

MURRAY

(PG)

BRAUN

(SG)

OVERALL

6 GAMES

11.8 PPG

3.5 REB

3.8 AST

11 GAMES

21.5 PPG

6.8 REB

2 AST

9 GAMES

34.3 PPG

11.5 REB

10.6 AST

7 GAMES

21.1 PPG

3.9 REB

5.2 AST

11 GAMES

14.6 PPG

4.8 REB

2.8 AST

VS. TOP 10 IN REBOUNDS ALLOWED

3 GAMES

15.7 PPG

4.7 REB

4.7 AST

6 GAMES

19.8 PPG

5.2 REB

1.2 AST

4 GAMES

30.3 PPG

13.3 REB

11.3 AST

4 GAMES 

25.3 PPG

3.8 REB

5.3 AST

6 GAMES

15.3 PPG

3.8 REB

2.5 AST

PROPS

PTS: 12.5

REB: 4.5

AST: 2.5

PTS: 16.5

REB: 6.5

AST: N/A

PTS: 27.5

REB: 11.5

AST: 10.5

PTS: 20.5 🔼 21.5

REB: 3.5

AST: 5.5

PTS: 14.5

REB: 5.5

AST: 2.5

Based on just back-to-back numbers, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are my initial targets. Now looking at the last five games against the Pistons, the lead guard is averaging 24.8 ppg against Detroit. The best of any other position of late. Jamal Murray over points would be where my handicap takes me.

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