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Small slate in the NBA tonight. Below are some useful charts and trends.
Since this morning’s newsletter, I’ve added prop line movements and another chart to help handicap Timberwolves-Lakers.
It also appears LaMelo Ball is now questionable for the Hornets due to an ankle injury. His props are off the board as I’m writing this, but I’ve included this morning’s handicap of LaMelo below. In case he’s out, I’ve added the updated “Hornets Without LaMelo” chart.
Free subscribers will get access to a preview of Hornets at Mavericks. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter featuring:
Nuggets at Bucks
Timberwolves at Lakers
About Last Night…
Where the PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:
76ers Andre Drummond and Paul George went over their rebound props. Drummond’s prop went up from 7.5 🔼 8.5 and both hit as he grabbed 9 boards. PG had 8 rebounds going over his prop of 4.5.
Pistons center Jalen Duren went under his 11.5 rebounds prop with 11 against the Celtics.
Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton went over his 19.5 points prop with 33 points against Toronto.
Kings shooting guard Zach LaVine went over his 2.5 3-pointers prop with 4 3s against the Jazz.
Where the PQ Newsletter was WRONG:
Clippers center Ivica Zubac did not take advantage of the Bulls without their center Nikola Vucevic. Zubac grabbed just 10 boards so he did not go over his 12.5 rebounds prop.
There were rebounds galore in Spurs-Rockets with three Rockets players grabbing 9+ boards. However, Alperen Sengun did not go over his 11.5 rebound prop. He had 11.
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 Hornets at Mavericks - 8:30 PM ET
LaMelo Ball
I couldn’t believe this prop when I saw it. LaMelo Ball’s rebounds prop is 4.5. It feels trappy, but also super low. Look at the last five games against the Mavericks (who allow the 10th most rebounds per game to their opponents):
@ LAL: PG Luka 15 reb, SF LeBron 12 reb, C Hayes 8 reb
@ GSW: PG Podziemski 13 reb
vs. NOLA: C Missi 10 reb, PF Zion 7 reb, SG McCollum 6, SG Murphy 6
vs. MIA: SF Anderson 10, C Ware 9, PG Herro 8, G Jaquez 6
vs. GSW: SF Butler 9, PF Green 5, PG Steph 5
What stands out on this list? Not only a lot of rebounds, but guards grabbing boards. The Mavs have no size. Watch out for former Hornet PJ Washington who is also questionable with an ankle injury for the Mavs. Diving deeper into LaMelo’s stats:
LAMELO VS. TEAMS BOTTOM 10 REBOUNDS ALLOWED | 12 GAMES 29.8 PPG 6.3 REB 8.5 AST |
LAMELO VS. TEAMS BOTTOM 10 REBOUNDS ALLOWED & PTS ALLOWED IN THE PAINT | 7 GAMES 28.1 PPG 5.6 REB 8.9 AST |
LAMELO’S PROPS | Points prop: 24.5 Rebounds prop: 4.5 Assists prop: 6.5 P+R+A: 35.5 R+A: 11.5 |
My numbers say LaMelo should have at least five rebounds tonight. Dallas has allowed a player to have at least six assists in four of the last five games. I lean over 11.5 R+A for LaMelo tonight.
Hornets Without LaMelo
GAMES W/O LAMELO | MILES BRIDGES | MARK WILLIAMS |
|---|---|---|
OVERALL | 14 GAMES 21.9 PPG 9.6 REB 4.6 AST | 9 GAMES 15.7 PPG 10.6 REB 1.9 AST |
GAMES W/O LAMELO BUT WITH MARK WILLIAMS | 7 GAMES 22.3 PPG 10.7 REB 6.1 AST | |
GAMES W/O LAMELO BUT WITH MARK WILLIAMS AGAINST TEAMS B10 IN REBOUNDS ALLOWED | 5 GAMES 20.6 PPG 9.4 REB 6.8 AST | 5 GAMES 15.2 PPG 10 REB 2 AST |
PROPS: | POINTS: 21.5 REBOUNDS: 6.5 ASSISTS: 3.5 | POINTS: 15.5 REBOUNDS: 10.5 ASSISTS: N/A |
The edge is always with Bridges’ rebounds and rebounds+assists in these spots without LaMelo and with Mark Williams.
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