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Hey subscribers! Happy Friday! This morning’s premium subscribers got afternoon baseball plays and an early look at tonight’s Suns-Celtics game. I’ve got MLB night game props below in addition to some more NBA looks.
Free subscribers will get access to a Suns-Celtics prop breakdown. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter including games:
Thunder at Rockets
Nuggets at Warriors
K Props To Watch
About Last Night…
Where the PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:
Orioles starter Charlie Morton went over his 5.5 strikeouts prop with 10 Ks in 5 IP against the Red Sox.
Brewers lefty Nestor Cortes went over his 5.5 K prop with 6 Ks in 6 IP pitching shut out baseball allowing just one hit against the Reds.
It was good not to fade Tyler Herro. He had 35 points against the Grizzlies.
Where the PQ Newsletter was WRONG:
Heat center Bam Adebayo did not go under his 4.5 assist prop. He finished with 5.
LeBron James did not go over his 7.5 rebounds prop. He had 5 against the Warriors.
It was a terrible outing for Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly. he allowed 9 runs punching out just two batters in 3.2 IP. Kelly did not go over his 4.5 K prop.
Yankees right hander Carlos Carrasco did not go under his 3.5 K prop. He had five strikeouts against the Diamondbacks… somehow. I still am shocked.
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 NBA PROP EDGES
SUNS AT CELTICS
7:30 PM ET
The Suns are in Boston for another game without All Star Kevin Durant. Here’s how the Suns players do in KD’s absence:
GAMES W/O KD | BOOKER | RICHARDS | DUNN |
|---|---|---|---|
OVERALL | 14 GAMES 27.2 PPG 3.6 REB 6.1 AST | 4 GAMES 9 PPG 10 REB 0.3 AST | 11 GAMES 6.5 PPG 3.1 REB 0.6 AST |
PROPS: | PTS: 26.5 REB: 3.5 AST: 6.5 | PTS: 8.5 REB: 7.5 AST: N/A | PROPS N/A THIS MORNING |
These two just played on March 26th in Phoenix. The Suns got whooped 132-102 and that was without Jayson Tatum. Devin Booker had a horrible game shooting for Phoenix putting up just 14 points with 7 rebounds and 10 assists. KD was the leading scorer for the Suns with 30 points. Without KD, Booker over points (although high) in a redemption spot doesn’t scare me. In the last three games, the Celtics have allowed guards to perform well:
vs. MIA: T. Herro 25 pts
@ MEM: J. Morant 26 pts
@ SAS: S. Castle 22 pts
Booker is on Ja Morant level, if not better. As for Nick Richards, his rebounds stands out in the chart. He also had a bad game last time around against the Celtics grabbing just four boards. I do like to bet on things that didn’t happen in game one; however, I’m a bit nervous for this matchup for Richards.
Here’s how opposing bigs do against the Suns with KD out:
OPPOSING BIGS VS. SUNS W/O KD | POINTS | REBOUNDS | ASSISTS |
|---|---|---|---|
AVG. IN 14 GAMES | 24.1 PPG | 10.9 REB | 5.1 AST |
To list a few of those bigs, here’s the last five to face the Suns without KD:
Giannis 37-5-11
Jokic 26-11-9
Kessler 19-22-4
Hartenstein 9-4-4
GOga Bitadze 21-16-4
Porzingis’ props are 20.5 points and 7.5 rebounds. He put up 30 in the last game against the Suns, but again, no Tatum. Just for your own handicapping purposes, Porzingis does average five more points per game when playing without Tatum.
Porzingis has grabbed 8+ boards in five of his last seven games including the last game against the Suns WITH KD. Al Horford was the Celtics’ leading rebounder that game grabbing 10 boards. I’d lean Porzingis over rebounds.
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