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Hey subscribers! Short slate of games across Major League Baseball and the NBA.
This morning’s premium newsletter had Charlie Morton over 5.5 Ks. Congrats on the afternoon W if you bet it!
Free subscribers will get access to a Grizzlies-Heat. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter including games:
Warriors at Lakers
K Props To Watch
About Last Night…
Where the PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:
Hornets center Mark Williams went over his 15.5 points prop with 16 and 10.5 rebounds prop with 12.
Miles Bridges went over his 4.5 assists prop with 5.
Mavericks point guard Spencer Dinwiddie went over his 3.5 rebounds prop. He had 4.
Royals lefty Cole Ragans went over his 6.5 K prop fanning 10 batters in 5 innings at Milwaukee.
Tigers reigning CY Young winner Tarik Skubal went over his 7.5 strikeout prop with 8 Ks in 5.2 IP at Seattle.
Diamondbacks right hander Zac Gallen flew over his 5.5 K prop against the Yankees. He had 13 punch outs in 6.2 IP.
Where the PQ Newsletter was WRONG:
Miles Bridges did not go over his 6.5 rebounds prop. He grabbed just 4.
Angels southpaw Yusei Kikuchi did not go under his 5.5 K prop. He had 6 strikeouts in 6 IP in St. Louis.
Mariners starter Luis Castillo did not go over his 6.5 strikeout prop. He struck out just 5 Tigers in 7 IP.
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 GRIZZLIES AT HEAT — 7:30 PM ET
HEAT ON 2ND LEG OF B2B
The Heat are playing on their second leg of a back-to-back tonight. Maybe it’s a let down spot after a big 124-103 win over the Celtics, in Boston, last night. Here are the numbers for how some Heat starters perform on the back end of a back-to-back:
HEAT B2B | HERRO | BAM | WARE |
|---|---|---|---|
OVERALL | 14 GAMES 21.7 PPG 5.8 REB 5.2 AST | 13 GAMES 16.2 PPG 9.4 REB 3.4 AST | 10 GAMES 10.1 PPG 8.2 REB 1 AST |
BAM & WARE TOGETHER | 9 GAMES 17.2 PPG 8.1 REB 2.8 AST | 9 GAMES 9.3 PPG 8.1 REB 1 AST | |
BAM WITHOUT WARE | 4 GAMES 13.8 PPG 12.3 REB 4.8 AST | ||
PROPS | PTS: 25.5 REB: 4.5 AST: 5.5 | PTS: 20.5 REB: 8.5 AST: 4.5 | PTS: 11.5 REB: 9.5 AST: N/A |
These numbers indicate Herro unders, but no way would I bet that against the Grizzlies. They’re getting SMOKED by guards and have a terrible perimeter defense. Last five guards to face the Grizz:
Steph 52 pts
Holiday 18 pts
Luka 29 pts
SGA 37 pts
Collier 21 pts
I really wanted a better number on Bam rebounds, but the book knows with Ware, the number is around eight boards. His assists do drop a lot with Ware on the floor since Bam takes on more of a power forward/ offensive role with him. My lean for Bam would be under assists.
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