Let’s talk about something Championship Weekend always brings to the surface:

The public eventually gets rocked.

They bet a lot of the same markets.
They pile into the same names.
By the time we hit kickoff, certain props are absolutely flooded with tickets.

So the question for this weekend isn’t what’s popular — it’s this:

Do you fade the public… or is this one of those rare spots where they might actually be right?

Let’s start with what’s getting hammered at BetMGM 👇

• Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 47.5 rushing yards (-140)
• RJ Harvey UNDER 40.5 rushing yards (-135)
• Demario Douglas OVER 16.5 receiving yards (-115)
• RJ Harvey OVER 18.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Rhamondre Stevenson UNDER 2.5 receptions (-105)

Recency bias is REAL on Stevenson. He’s gone over in three straight games. Yet, he’s averaging 10 rush yds less per game on the road this year. Stevenson’s also facing a defense allowing the second least rush yards per game to RBs.

RJ Harvey is averaging 31.1 rushing yards per game so it makes sense the public wants to fade him against the Pats. Prior to week 18, New England did allow 164, 171 and 168 rushing yards to the Jets, Ravens and Bills. Yes, their linebackers were banged up then, but can the Broncos expose those holes? We also haven’t seen an offense without Bo Nix and with Jarrett Stidham. Would have to think Harvey gets extra attempts.