Welcome to Wild Card Weekend in the NFL.
Today’s newsletter is just focused on the two games on today’s slate — 4:30 PM ET Rams at Panthers and 8:00 PM ET Packers at Bears.
I’m keeping this one strictly about line movement.
Earlier this week, I released the full Wild Card Weekend Prop Guide with all of the research, edges, and targets laid out ahead of time. Below, you’ll see how the market moved on many of those same props as we got closer to kickoff. A lot of these numbers moved in our favor, some moved against us — and that contrast is exactly why getting ahead of the market matters.
This isn’t about hindsight.
It’s about the marketing confirming the work in the guide.
I labeled green if they moved in favor of the Wild Card Weekend Guide & red if they moved against the guide.
🕟 4:30 PM ET
Rams at Panthers
LAR (-10.5) at CAR
Total: 46.5 → 45.5
Here’s how the prop market moved throughout the week:
Bryce Young
Over 18.5 Completions (-127) → 19.5 (-105)
Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (-135) → 30.5 (-113)
Rico Dowdle
Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-120) → 13.5 (-135)
orOver 8.5 Longest Reception (-118) → (-125)
Tommy Tremble
Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114) → 18.5 (-115)
Tetairoa McMillan
Over 21.5 Longest Reception (-120) → 22.5 (-115)
Matthew Stafford
Under 22.5 Completions (+100) → -129
Under 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110) → 33.5 (-108)
Kyren Williams
Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (+101) → -110
Over 65.5 Rush Yards (-114) → 68.5 (-112)
Over 14.5 Longest Rush (-105) → 13.5 (-114)
Colby Parkinson
Over 2.5 Receptions (+152) → +145
Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114) → 19.5 (-112)
Over 11.5 Longest Reception (-120) → 12.5 (-110)
Tyler Higbee
Over 2.5 Receptions (-102) → +105
Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-114) → 24.5 (-112)
Over 13.5 Longest Reception (-114) → 14.5 (-105)
🕗 8:00 PM ET
Packers at Bears
GB at CHI
Spread: CHI -1.5 → GB -1.5
Total: 47.5 → 44.5
Caleb Williams
Under 218.5 Pass Yards (-115) → 208.5 (-112)
Under 12.5 Longest Rush (-120) → 11.5 (-108)
D’Andre Swift
Under 11.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Colston Loveland
Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115) → 47.5 (-115)
orUnder 18.5 Longest Reception (-125) → 19.5 (-118)
Cole Kmet
Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110) → 13.5 (-111)
Josh Jacobs
Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110) → 14.5 (-110)
Why This Matters
By the time you’re seeing these numbers now, the value is already thinner — and in some cases, gone.
That’s the difference between:
reacting to the board
and being positioned before it moves
If you want the full Wild Card Weekend Prop Guide — with all of the edges identified — it’s available below.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Prop Guide
Don’t have the time to research every Wild Card props? I already did it for you. This guide breaks down the entire offensive prop board by matchup, trends, and context — so you can spend less ti...
Ariel Epstein, known as the Prop Queen, turned her passion for fantasy sports and prop betting into a career. After years of working for other media companies and sportsbooks, it’s time to share her knowledge, preparation and analysis with other sports bettors.
