Happy Thursday!
It’s officially Week 16 in the NFL, and tonight’s matchup is a good one.
We’ve got a rematch between the Rams and Seahawks, this time up in Seattle with the division on the line. These two teams met back on November 16th, where the Rams pulled out a tight 21–19 win. Same rivalry, higher stakes, very different setup.
The market has already moved quite a bit, and a few props really stood out to me heading into tonight. Let’s get into it.
📊 Game & Market Notes
LAR -1.5
Total: 45.5 → 42.5 (significant drop)
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ARIEL’S CORNER
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LAR RB Kyren Williams Over 8.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
This one continues to be quietly reliable, especially on the road.
Kyren in 2025 vs. defenses allowing the most receiving yards per game to running backs:
TB: 1 rec for 2 rec yds
BAL: 2 rec 37 rec yds
SEA: 1 rec 5 rec yds
PHI: 2 rec 18 yds
SF: 2 rec 11 rec yds
Here’s the key split:
On the road: 11+ receiving yards in 6 of 7 games
Average: 14.9 receiving yards per game
At home: Under in 4 of 7 games
Seattle allows the 5th-most receiving yards per game to RBs (40.2).
Four of the last six running backs to face Seattle went over their receiving yards prop.
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