⚾️ The Prop Queen Newsletter

Hey subscribers! Free members will see props and stats from this afternoon’s slate of games. Basic and premium members will get stats and props for tonight’s games.

There are four Divisional Round games on today:

Mariners at Tigers - 3:08 PM ET

Brewers at Cubs - 5:08 PM ET

Blue Jays at Yankees - 7:08 PM ET

Phillies at Dodgers - 9:08 PM ET

With two afternoon games coming up, I’m just sending stats and props for the first two games. I will send the two night games shortly after.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Mariners at Tigers

Mariners lead 2-1

3:08 PM ET

Stats to Know

The Tigers have lost eight straight games at Comerica Park being outscored 50-22.

The Tigers are batting .191 this postseason. Their .546 OPS is lower than Tarik Skubal’s opponent’s OPS this season.

In the playoffs - Zach McKinstry is 1-19 with 8 Ks. Dillon Dingler is 2-21 with a HR and RBI. Wenceel Perez is 1-17 with 7 Ks.

With Tarik Skubal lined up for Game Five, expect a short leash on Casey Mize today. None of the Tigers’ best relievers pitched on Tuesday (Tyler Holton, Kyle Finnegan, Will Vest).

Mize beat the Mariners in his season debut on April 1st in Seattle allowing one hit in 5.2 scoreless innings, but lost on July 12th in Detroit allowing six runs in three innings.

The Mariners have won each of their four games at Comerica Park this season outscoring the Tigers 43-18.

Bryce Miller hasn’t pitched for the Mariners since Sept. 28th. His ERA went up from 2.94 last year to 5.68 this year. He did have some elbow issues this season. Miller is 2-0 in three career starts against Detroit throwing 19 scoreless innings.

Cal Raleigh is 6-13 with a home run and a walk in the LDS. He has four homers and 11 RBI in nine games against the Tigers this season.

Jorge Polanco is 6-16 (.375) with two doubles and two home runs against Casey Mize.

Play: Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 RBI (+115) - Went over in three of four this year in Detroit with five, one and three RBIs. In nine overall games against the Tigers this season, Raleigh has 11 RBIs.

Pitcher Props: Although I want to like Casey Mize over hits allowed, the short leash and rested bullpen makes it tough to take an over 3.5.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Brewers at Cubs

Brewers lead series 2-0

5:08 PM ET

Stats to Know

The Brewers have lost eight of 11 potential clinching games all-time.

Teams taking a 2-0 lead in a best of five series have won that series 80 of the 90 times (88.9%). Since 2016, 17 of the 18 teams to go up 2-0 have won the series.

The Cubs have been down 2-0 in three different best of five series, they were swept in all three (1998, 2007 and 2008 NLDS).

Quinn Priester is making his MLB postseason debut. Prior to losing his last start of the regular season, the Brewers won 19 straight games in which Priester pitched (12-0, 2.84 ERA).

Priester was 1-1 allowing seven, two and one run against the Cubs this year. He had 11 walks with 11 strikeouts in 14.1 innings.

Jackson Chourio is 5-for-7 with a double, home run and six RBI in this series. In five career postseason games, Chourio is 10-18 with three home runs, nine RBIs and five runs scored. The record for most RBI in a player’s first six career postseason games in 12 by Nomar Garciaparra.

Since Jameson Taillon returned from the injured list on September 10th, he is 2-1 with a 1.32 ERA over five starts. The Cubs won four of those games.

The Cubs have scored three runs or less in 13 straight postseason games dating back to 2017. They are hitting .125 with men on base this postseason.

Dansby Swanson is 3-17 with 11 Ks.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is 4-for-18 with 10 Ks.

Christian Yelich has a seven-game postseason hit streak since 2021 hitting .393 with five runs in that span.

Seiya Suzuki has seven homers and 14 RBI in his last nine games.

Play: Quinn Priester Over 3.5 Ks -113 - Priester went over in two of three games this year against the Cubs with four, three and four strikeouts. The Cubs strikeout percentage has gone up from 20.7% to 34.5% in the playoffs. Their chase rate is up from 26.7 to 29.3%. The Cubs whiff rate is also up from 23.6 to 31.6%. Although they had a day off, the Brewers did use six bullpen arms on Monday. Being up 2-0 in the series, Priester may not have as short a leash as others. Game Four would be tomorrow, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Brewers keep Priester in the game, getting this K prop at a playoff price.

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