📰 THE PROP QUEEN NEWSLETTER — THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL

Happy Thursday!

We’ve got a divisional matchup tonight between Tampa Bay and Atlanta, and these games usually come down to familiarity and adjustments. When teams see each other twice, tendencies get exposed and volume shifts matter more than season-long averages.

It’s worth noting, the line has moved from Bucs -5.5 ➡️ -4.5 despite 74% bets and 79% of money on them. Sharps are clearly backing the Falcons in this spot. 🎣 The total is also on the rise from 43.5 ➡️ 44.5.

I broke down the matchup, the defensive profiles, and how both quarterbacks have performed in similar spots — and there are some clear edges on this slate.

Check out the Prop Queen Media YouTube Channel for updates later today & hear from today’s guests for their best bets.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Free Bet of the Day

TB QB Baker Mayfield Under 31.5 Pass Att -105

When up against top-10 pass defenses, Baker has followed a consistent pattern this year. It continues to point toward the under.

Here’s his profile vs. top-10 pass defenses:

17.8 completions

30.2 pass attempts

177 pass yards

1 TD per game on average

Game logs:

@ BUF — 16/28 for 173 yds, TD
@ HOU — 25/38 for 215 yds, 2 TD
@ NOLA — 15/24 for 152 yds
vs, NOLA — 14/30 for 122 yds, TD
vs, NYJ — 19/29 for 233 yds, TD
@ ATL — 17/32 for 167 yds, 3 TD

Why I like the under:

• Averaging 30.2 attempts against elite pass defenses.

• Has gone under in 67% of home games this year.

• First meeting vs ATL? Baker threw 32 attempts, just barely over this line.

• The Falcons allow the 8th-least pass attempts per game (29.9).

• 62% of QBs have gone under their pass attempts prop vs. Atlanta.

Atlanta’s defense forces shorter drives and limits volume. This is a spot where Baker likely needs efficiency — not volume — to succeed.

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