⚾️🏈 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Hi subscribers! I hope you all enjoyed your Labor Day Weekend. It’s the best time of year with baseball hitting the end of the regular season and the NFL starting this Thursday. That said, I’ve listed below a few NFL prop futures for all free subscribers.

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Pitchers Props

Matchups to Watch

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ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 NFL Futures

PHI QB Jalen Hurts Over 3,200.5 Passing Yards -110

Prior to Saquon Barkley’s arrival in Philly, Hurts went over 3200.5 passing yards in back-to-back seasons:

2022: 3,701 passing yards

2023: 3,858 passing yards

Hurts threw for just 2,903 passing yards last year so this prop being where it is tells me we should see more of the QB this year.

Whenever you get a shiny new toy, it’s always the one you want to use the most. That was the Eagles with Barkley last year who rushed for a career high 2,005 yards. His prop is 1,425.5 this year. In seasons where Barkley played in 13+ games, he averaged 1,035.4 rushing yards.

I know it was the Giants, but it just makes sense. When you rush for career highs the year before AND have an injury history, the Eagles will do what they can to keep Saquon healthy. Plus, they know they can throw the football and win. The receiving corps of AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and a tight end like Dallas Goedert provides plenty of options for Hurts.

BAL RB Derrick Henry Under 1,375.5 Rushing Yards -110

Similar to Saquon, this number on Henry feels very low. Henry’s coming off a 1,921 rushing yard season. He had the second most behind Saquon last year. The Ravens have a loaded backfield and a ton of weapons in the passing game. This season, Henry will split carries with Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell. Mitchell tore his ACL, PCL and hamstring in December of 2023. He played just five games last year but participated in preseason games this year AND I know from people close to him that he says he feels great.

That said, between Hill, Mitchell AND mobile quarterback Lamar Jackson, I worry for Henry’s rushing yards in year two in Baltimore. Lamar has a tone of weapons in the passing game too with Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, DeAndre Hopkins, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. As much as the Ravens fan in me hates to say it, I think Henry does less than last year.

HOU WR Nico Collins Over 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns -130

According to Warren Sharp, when Collins was on the field last year, he was targeted on 28.3% of his routes with 33.4% of the team’s targets. He missed five games, but was still targeted 39.4% of the time in the red zone and 57.9% in the end zone. If he didn’t miss those five games, those would have been top five rates for a wide receiver over the entire season.

The only other receivers I’d be “concerned” about splitting endzone targets with are Christian Kirk and Dalton Schultz (more so Schultz). Still, Collins is the surefire wide receiver one. Texans pass catching running back Joe Mixon is starting the season on the IR leaving Nick Chubb and Dameon Pierce in the backfield. Both also are not threats in the passing game.

With Collins scoring eight and seven touchdowns the last two seasons, I like him against to go over 6.5.

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