🏈 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Happy Thanksgiving subscribers! We have three great games on the slate today:

Packers at Lions - 1:00 PM ET

Chiefs at Cowboys - 4:30 PM ET

Bengals at Ravens - 8:20 PM ET

Since I’ll be at the Ravens game tonight, I’m sending out one newsletter with all of today’s prop leans.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Packers at Lions

These teams played week one of the season. I always hate betting the same outcomes twice. There’s one prop I would bet to hit again, but the others, I will likely stay away from if they cashed at the beginning of the season.

Packers QB Jordan Love Over 38.5 Yards Longest Pass -110

This is the one prop I will bet to hit again. Love’s hit this in six straight games against Detroit averaging 43.9 yards per longest throw.

In divisional games, Love is averaging 41.4 yards per longest throw. He’s also gone over in all four of his recent games games on short rest. If Matthew Golden plays, Love will have Watson, Doubs, Wicks and Golden. Plus, Lions safety Kerby Joseph is likely out. Head coach Dan Campbell said he doesn’t expect him to be available with his knee injury.

Another Market for Love

Love under 19.5 completions intrigued me. The Lions have allowed the ninth least completions per game (19.3). However, Love had 16 completions in game one going under in two of his last three games against Detroit.

GB RB Josh Jacobs Under 56.5 Rush Yds -111

Jacobs rushed for 66 yards on 19 carries in game one. He’s coming off a knee injury and hasn’t played since Nov. 16th against the Giants. The Lions have allowed the ninth least rushing yards per game to running backs with 57% of running backs going under their rushing yards prop this year. This number feels a bit too low since Jacobs is averaging 65.5 rushing yards against teams top 10 against the run. However, coming off injury against a top 10 run D, I could see it being a more pass heavy game, unlike game one.

Another Market for Jacobs

Jacobs under 15.5 receiving yards. The Lions allow the fifth least receiving yards per game to running backs. Jacobs only made one catch for four yards in game one so again, if you think the same result can happen in game two, it could be a good market to bet. I just won’t bet the same result twice.

DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs Under 35.5 Receiving Yds -115

Gibbs is averaging 22.2 receiving yards per game in his last 10 against the division going under in eight of those 10 matchups. On three days rest, Gibbs went under in all three. The Packers allow the ninth least receiving yards per game to running backs with 63% of running backs going under their receiving yards prop against the Packers this year.

In the first game, Gibbs went over his 24.5 receiving yards prop with 31. The number at 35.5 is high. He’s gone under this in all five games against Green Bay averaging 20.4 receiving yards per game. In fact, that 31-yard receiving game was a career high for Gibbs against the Packers.

Markets for Lions QB Jared Goff

The Packers have allowed the fifth least passing yards per game (197.8). However, Goff went under his passing yards prop in game one so I’m hesitant to go under again in game two.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Chiefs at Cowboys

DAL RB Javonte Williams Under 68.5 Rush Yds -113

Williams has faced Kansas City six times. Remember, he was a Denver Bronco to start his career. He went under 68.5 rushing yards in four of those six matchups. In Williams last 10 primetime games, he’s averaged 51.6 rushing yards. The Chiefs have allowed the fourth least rushing yards per game to running backs with 65% of running backs going under their rushing yards prop against the Chiefs. If Dallas is playing from behind they’ll have to throw. His prop is 68.5 yet, Williams has rushed for 80+ in five straight home games. This number is telling you all you need to know.

DAL QB Dak Prescott

Since the start of last season, Dak’s faced five top 10 pass defenses. He’s averaging 22.4 completions, 34 pass attempts and 233.2 passing yards per game in those matchups. Dak’s completions prop is 24.5 and his receiving yards prop is 266.5. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth least pass attempts and seventh least passing yards per game.

Dak’s rushing yards prop is also 8.5 (-118). He’s averaging 12.6 rushing yards per game at home in primetime going over in five of nine spots. The Chiefs allow the sixth most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks (23.5). They’re also top 10 in blitz rate so if pressure is applied and the Cowboys are playing from behind, Dak could be scrambling. This year in the two games against teams top 10 in blitz rate, Dak ran six times for 31 yards against Denver and seven times for 28 yards against the Jets. 55% of quarterback have gone over their rushing yards prop against the Chiefs this year.

KC QB Patrick Mahomes

The Cowboys are bottom 10 in completions, pass attempts, passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed per game. I know the Cowboys’ defense has looked better since the trade deadline with the addition of Quinnen Williams; however, Mahomes is averaging 26.4 completions, 37.7 pass attempts and 289.2 passing yards through the last two seasons when facing a bottom 10 pass defense. His longest throw averaged 38.9 yards in those matchups. On the road, Mahomes averaged 25.9 completions, 37.2 pass attempts, 264.6 passing yards and 36.8 yards per longest throw against bottom 10 pass Ds since 2024. Mahomes’ completions prop is 23.5, pass attempts is 35.5 and passing yards is 259.5. Mahomes’ longest pass prop is 37.5.

If you want an over, I’d look to over pass attempts. On the road this season, Mahomes is averaging 39.2 pass attempts per game going over his pass attempts prop in four of five road starts.

KC WR Juju Smith Schuster Over 7.5 Yds Longest Reception -120

A trend I saw on Props.cash, Juju has cashed the over 7.5 yards for a longest reception in 10 straight primetime games. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth most receiving yards per game to wide receivers this year.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Bengals at Ravens

BAL RB Derrick Henry Over 19.5 Yards Longest Rush -110

At home in primetime with Lamar Jackson under center, Henry’s cashed this over in three of four games. The Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards per game to running backs (131.1). Out of the 11 games the Bengals have played this year, nine number one bucks went over their longest rush prop.

Ravens' Running Back Receiving Yard Props

Derrick Henry Over 6.5 Rec Yds (-108): Henry’s gone over in all three games without Justice Hill on a short week. Henry’s also cashed this over in four straight games without Hill in primetime. The Bengals have allowed the second most receiving yards per game to running backs (45.9).

Keaton Mitchell Over 8.5 Rec Yds (-110): Mitchell’s hit his over in two of three games without Justice Hill with 28 and 23 receiving yards. With the Bengals struggling against pass catching backs and Mitchell being the number two to Henry, I could see Henry being more focused on the ground and Mitchell in the passing game.

CIN RB Chase Brown Over 18.5 Rec Yds -120

Brown had 52 receiving yards in Baltimore last November. That game was also on three days rest. He has also gone over in four straight road primetime games. Against teams bottom 10 against pass catching backs, Brown’s averaging 34 receiving yards per game since the start of last year. The Ravens have allowed the seventh most receiving yards per game to running backs (38.1) with 57% of running backs going over their receiving yards prop against the Ravens. Last year, a Cincy running back went over his receiving yard prop in both Bengals-Ravens games. Zack Moss went over a 13.5 receiving yards prop with 28 and Chase Brown went over a 24.5 yard prop with 52.