🏈 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving! It’s Black Friday and we have a 3 PM ET game between the Bears and Eagles. The Eagles are 7-point favorites with the total at 43.5.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Bears Props

Bears QB Caleb Williams Over 20.5 Rush Yds -135

This season Williams has faced five teams bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks:

vs. DAL 5 rush attempts for 12 yards

@ CIN 5 rush attempts for 53 yards

@ DET 5 rush attempts for 27 yards

vs. NOLA 4 rush attempts for -2 yards

vs. NYG 6 rush attempts for 63 yards

Last season he also ran five times for 37 yards against Seattle.

The Eagles have allowed the ninth most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks (22.1).

Bears WR Rome Odunze Over 19.5 Yds Longest Rec -120

Odunze is averaging 25.7 yards per longest catch in his three road primetime games going over 19.5 in all three. He’s cashed the over in five of his last six road games with Caleb Williams. Odunze leads the Bears in longest catches made with 13. The next most is DJ Moore with seven.

Bears WR DJ Moore Over 16.5 Yds Longest Rec -115

As mentioned above, he has the second most deep balls (20+ yards) caught on the Bears. In his last 10 road games, Moore went over in eight of 10 averaging 22.6 yards per longest catch.

As seen in the graph, Moore has been a profitable deep threat on the road in primetime.

The Eagles have allowed the 10th most receiving yards per game to wide receivers this year. In the last five games, 63% of receivers have gone over their longest reception prop against the Eagles.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Eagles Props

PHI QB Jalen Hurts Over 7.5 Rush Att -120

It’s the trend that keeps on giving. Hurts has cashed this over in 15 of his last 16 primetime home games.

My only concern about this prop is the Bears have actually allowed the eighth least rush attempts per game to quarterbacks, but weirdly the fifth most rushing yards per game to the position. The Bears are 11th in blitz rate, but fifth lowest pressure rate. Cashing in 11 straight home primetime games, this is still a great trend for Hurts.

Other Hurts Props

The Bears have allowed the third most passing touchdowns per game this year (2) with 55% of quarterbacks going over their passing TD prop.

PHI RB Saquon Barkley Over 78.5 Rush Yds -112 or Over 17.5 Rush Att -110

At home in primetime, Saquon’s averaging 20.8 rush attempts through his last 10.

He’s cashed that over more than his rushing yards in these spots:

The Eagles have only faced two bottom 10 run defenses this year. Two of the three games were on the road:

@ NYG 12 rush attempts 58 rush yards

vs. NYG 14 rush attempts for 150 rush yards

@ MIN 18 rush attempts for 44 rush yards

Yet when you look at last year at home against bottom 10 run defenses here are Saquon’s numbers:

vs. CAR 20 rush attempts for 124 rush yards

vs. WAS 26 rush attempts for 146 rush yds 2 TD

vs. JAX 27 rush attempts for 159 rush yards TD

With the Bears missing pretty much all their linebackers and they’re already allowing the seventh most rushing yards per game to running backs (108.2). Great spot for Saquon.

PHI TE Dallas Goedert Over 15.5 Yards Longest Rec -115

Goedert hasn’t even faced a defense bottom 10 against tight ends this year. However, last year, he cashed his over 15.5 yards longest reception prop in four of those five matchups including both at home with 21 and 61 yard catches. The Bears have allowed the 10th most receiving yards per game to tight ends (58.5) with eight of the last 11 tight ends going over their longest reception prop.