⚾️ The Prop Queen Newsletter

Hey subscribers! The MLB Divisional Round begins today. Here’s what you need to know:

Through 156 games, teams that win Game 1 of the best-of-five series won 72% of the time.

Since 1995 in the divisional series, through 120 games, the team to win Game One ends up winning the series 73% of the time.

In the last three years, 12 games, 11 won the series (92%). The 2022 Padres were the only team in the last three years to lose Game One and win the LDS.

Since 2022, in six of nine series between divisional opponents, the lower seeded team has won.

Rest vs. Rust

It’s been split the last three years. LDS teams are 6-6 after getting a bye and facing a Wild Card series winner:

2024: Teams on a bye were 3-1 (Phillies were the only team to lose)

2023: Teams on a bye were 1-3 (Dodgers, Braves and Orioles lost)

2022: Teams on a bye were 2-2 (Astros and Yankees won)

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Cubs at Brewers

Stats to Know

The Cubs have won seven of 13 games against the Brewers in the regular season. They split their six meetings in Milwaukee, but the Cubs won three of five at Wrigley in August.

Brewers starter Freddy Peralta is 7-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 16 starts against the Cubs since the start of 2021. That includes 3-1 with a 3.43 ERA in four starts against the Cubs this year.

Peralta went 9-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 17 home starts this year. That includes a 0.75 ERA across his last five starts at American Family Field. Peralta held opponents to a .135 average with runners in scoring position this year (the lowest in MLB).

Matthew Boyd will start for the Cubs on three days rest for the first time since August 22, 2017. He threw 58 pitches in Game One of the Wild Card.

Boyd allowed nine runs in 10.1 innings in two starts against the Brewers this season.

Ian Happ is 2-32 with a .063 averaging and 14 Ks against Peralta.

Dansby Swanson is 2-21 with a .095 batting average with 8 Ks against Peralta.

Seiya Suzuki is 3-23 with a .130 average, 12 strikeouts and one home run against Peralta. The issue isn’t just Peralta, Suzuki is hitting just .120 with 22 Ks in 13 games against Milwaukee this season. However, Suzuki has an extra-base hit in his last eight games.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (5-11 with a HR) and Kyle Tucker (5-11) have had better numbers against Peralta.

The Brewers and Cubs ranked first and second in steals this season. Opponents are 12-for-13 against Peralta stealing bags this year.

Play: Freddy Peralta over 14.5 outs. Unfortunately, it moved from -135 to -150 today and I don’t like laying -150 on props. 14.5 is the key number as Peralta went over in 30/33 games this year and eight of 10 at home in the afternoon. Once that number is raised to 15.5, he’s only gone over in half his starts and four of 10 at home in the afternoon. The way I see it, the Brewers have an injured Quintana and a young Quinn Priester the next few games of the series. You need Peralta to go as deep as possible into this game to save your pen.

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