🏀⚾️ The Prop Queen Newsletter

Hey subscribers! Today’s newsletter features World Series Game 1 props and NBA props. All stats and info come from Props.cash.

Since this morning’s premium newsletter, I’ve updated the lines to indicate how they’ve moved/ given you the best lines left in the market thanks to Pikkit.

Don’t forget to subscribe to the Prop Queen Sports YouTube page! Today’s guests were Mid Major Matt talking World Series and previewing the upcoming college football slate. Sicscore.com’s Taylor Bicht also joined the show to give NFL props we can take advantage of by using NFL injuries to our advantage.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 World Series Game 1

Dodgers at Blue Jays

Blake Snell vs. Trey Yesavage

Tonight at 8:00 PM ET

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 HRR -111 ➡️ -119

or RBI +195 ➡️ +175

In Freeman’s last three games in Toronto, he had 2+ HRR. Against Toronto overall, he’s gone over 1.5 HRR in five of six games since the start of last year. Freeman’s hit safely in all 11 career World Series games batting .310 with six home runs in his last seven World Series games. Freeman’s also driven in a run in seven straight World Series games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 HRR -110 ➡️ -120

Vladdy’s gone over this in 70% of his home night games against lefties. My only fear is Vladdy is 2-for-11 in his career against Snell. He’s just been on fire for this to be the price. Vladdy is hitting .442 with 6 homers and 12 RBIs in the playoffs.

PROPaganda

The Most Bet on Props at BetMGM

Fade the Public or Are They Right?

1. Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Home Run +220

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Home Run +400

3. Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts +100

4. George Springer Over 0.5 Home Run +450

5. Mookie Betts Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI +125

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 NBA Props

🏀 Hawks at Magic

7:00 PM ET

(ORL) Paolo Banchero Over 24.5 Pts

-130 ➡️ -125

Banchero’s gone over this number in five of seven games against Atlanta. At home last season, he averaged 26 ppg. Plus Kristaps Porzingis is OUT tonight. There aren’t many other great defensive bigs on the floor for Atlanta and you still have to guard center Wendell Carter Jr. The Hawks allowed the fourth most ppg to their opponents last season.

🏀 Spurs at Pelicans

8:00 PM ET

(SAS) Harrison Barnes Over 13.5 P+R -105

Barnes has gone over in eight of the last 10 games facing New Orleans averaging 16.1 P+R. On the road in New Orleans, Barnes went over 13.5 PR in all five games with 17+ PR. The Pelicans allowed the fifth most ppg last season and still allowed the eighth most points through game one of this season. New Orleans has also allowed the fourth most rebounds per game since last year.

🏀 Wizards at Mavericks

8:30 PM ET

(DAL) Naji Marshall Over 10.5 P+A

-110 ➡️ -150

Marshall’s gone over in both games against Washington with 23 and 14 PA. At home, Marshall went over in 69% of games averaging 15.7 PA. Without Kyrie Irving last season, Marshall went over 87% of the time. Washington allowed the second most ppg and assists per game last year. Those defensive struggles poured into this season. After game one, the Wizards ranked 26th in ppg and assists allowed.

🏀 Jazz at Kings

10:00 PM ET

(SAC) DeMar DeRozan Over 4.5 Assists

-105 ➡️ +107

I mentioned this in the premium newsletter this morning. With Sabonis available tonight, this is no longer a play… Here’s the info for future reference in case Sabonis does sit:

Without Domantas Sabonis last year, who’s out with a hamstring injury, DeRozan averaged one assist more per game. This prop isn’t accounting for that difference. DeRozan averaged 4.4 assists per game with Sabonis and 5.5 assists per game without him. DeRozan went over 4.5 assists in six of 10 last season without Sabonis. The Jazz allowed the most assists per game last year and 10th most among all teams through game one this season.

Both teams were bottom five against the three last season too.

Risky Play That Makes Me Want To Throw Up 😆 

(NYK) Jalen Brunson Under 37.5 PRA -118

He went under in both games against the Celtics last year without Jayson Tatum with 29 and 35 PRA. One game was in Boston and the other was at MSG. At home last season, Brunson went under 37.5 PRA in 62% of games (including games without Tatum). Brunson actually went over this prop more on the road. The Celtics allowed the second least points per game last year, but of course no Porzingis and no Tatum, this defense is not nearly what it was. I just felt the Brunson under trends at home (even against teams not named Boston) were worth noting.