⚾️🏈 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Hey subscribers! Since this morning’s premium newsletter, I’ve added Stats to Know & props for tomorrow’s MLB Game 5 between the Brewers and Cubs. I’ve also included PROPaganda (aka the most bet on props from BetMGM) for tonight’s Game 5 between the Tigers and Mariners.

This morning’s premium newsletter featured Tigers at Mariners Stats to Know and props. I also had early NFL props to get ahead of for Sunday. Some of those football props have already moved since this morning. I’ve made note of them below.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Tigers at Mariners

Series Tied At 2-2

8:08 PM ET

Stats to Know

Per WagerTalk’s Ralph Michaels, MLB playoff series that are tied in a rubber game with a total of eight and less the over/under in 4-16-2 (80% to the under). The total for tonight’s game is 5.5!

In a best-of-five postseason series, the team that trailed 2-1 before avoiding elimination in Game 4 (Detroit) has won Game 5 to advance in 29 of 50 situations (58%).

Detroit has lost all of Tarik Skubal’s starts against Seattle this season. he’s 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA against the Mariners this year compared to 14-4 with a 1.97 ERA against all other teams.

Skubal lost his only other winner-take-all postseason game. He held Cleveland to just two hits through four innings in Game 5 of last year’s ALDS before allowing five runs in the fifth inning.

Jorge Polanco is hitting .310 (9-29) with three homers in his career against Skubal.

The Tigers have scored two runs or fewer in each of Skubal’s last five starts (1-4 straight up).

Seattle’s bullpen has allowed 10 runs in 6.2 innings across the last two games including three home runs on Wednesday.

Cal Raleigh is hitting .438 (7-16) with a team-best four RBI in this series. All other Mariners combined to hit .190 with 10 RBI in the ALDS.

Prop: Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 RBI (+250) - For as well as Polanco has hit the ball against lefties this year (nonetheless Skubal) it’s a nice price at +250. In Polanco’s last 10 games against a lefty at home, he’s driven in a run in seven of 10 games. Polanco is hitting .310 with three home runs against Skubal in his career. His over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBI prop was too juiced at -165. You could raise it to over 1.5 HRR for +151. Polanco’s gone over 1.5 HRR in seven of his last 10 games at home against lefties as well. I know it’s a low total, but someone’s gotta score.

Tarik Skubal Over 19.5 Outs (-120) - Not only is this number super high for a playoff game, but the 5.5 total is SUPER low. If it stays low scoring, the Tigers best option is leaving Skubal in as long as possible. In Seattle at night the last two seasons, Skubal hit 21 outs allowing two earned runs in both games. Seattle’s hit better on the road all season than at home (OPS 22nd at home vs. 2nd on road). The only downside is Detroit’s pen is rested, so any sign of trouble late, could get Skubal pulled.

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