⚾️ The Prop Queen Newsletter

Hey subscribers! Between going to the game tonight and going live on the Prop Queen Pod this afternoon, gathering info from sportsbooks, I apologize for not getting the newsletter out.

After speaking with some sportsbook directors, it seems there’s a heavy liability on the NL. Here’s what I learned from some sportsbooks and what they need:

FanDuel Needs: Yankees and Dodgers to win. Brewers and Phillies to lose.

DraftKings Needs: Dodgers and Red Sox to lose.

BetMGM Needs: American League to win the World Series. Biggest liabilities are Dodgers and Brewers. They’d love (for now) for the Yankees to win.

Superbook Las Vegas: Cubs to lose

I’ve previewed all Wild Card series and games below.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Matchups to Watch

Good Matchups

Amed Rosario - .667 (6-9) with 2B, HR vs. Garrett Crochet

Cody Bellinger - .357 (5-14) with HR vs. Garrett Crochet

Tommy Edman - .389 (7-18) with 2B, 6 Ks vs. Hunter Greene

Miguel Andujar - .308 (4-13) with 2B vs. Blake Snell

Alex Bregman - .385 (5-13) with HR vs. Max Fried

Manny Machado - .385 (5-13) with 2 2B vs. Matthew Boyd

Dansby Swanson - .294 (10-34) with 2B, 2 HR vs. Nick Pivetta

Ian Happ - .300 3-10 with 2B vs. Nick Pivetta

Bad Matchups

Aaron Judge - .200 (3-15) with 2 HR and 11 Ks vs. Garrett Crochet

Paul Goldschmidt - .133 (2-15) with 5 Ks vs. Garrett Crochet

Jarren Duran - 0-10 with 5 Ks vs. Max Fried

Kyle Tucker - .167 (2-12) with 2B vs. Nick Pivetta

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Padres at Cubs

Stats to Know

Nick Pivetta set career best numbers in wins, ERA, Ks and innings this year. He’s held opponents to a .195 average this season, the fourth lowest for any pitcher this season.

Pivetta has only pitched once in the postseason posting a 2.63 ERA in three games back in 2021 with Boston. In his lone start, he threw five innings of one-run ball in the ALCS against Houston.

Luis Arraez has hit .383 with eight runs during a 15-game hit streak.

The Padres bullpen is the best in baseball with a 3.06 ERA. Mason Miller has thrown 21.1 consecutive scoreless innings. His last run allowed was August 5th. Closer Robert Suarez led the NL with 40 saves (2.06 ERA since July 2nd). Lefty Adrian Morejon has held lefties to a .148 average with 1 XBH and 34 Ks.

Matthew Boyd owns a 5.51 ERA over his last nine starts. He did beat the Padres in Wrigley in April.

Kyle Tucker is 1-11 in three games since returning from a strained calf.

The Padres went 38-43 on the road compared to 52-29 at home.

Fernando Tatis Jr. had seven home runs in his final 20 regular season games. He’s hitting .375 with six home runs in 48 at bats in the playoffs in his career.

Play: I took the Padres at +106 to win the series. I always bet on teams with the best bullpen depth. The Padres have the experience in the playoffs and the pitching staff to do it. I worry about their record on the road and of course the Cubs are the hotter lineup, but give me pitching and experience.

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