🏀 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Happy Monday! Tonight in the NBA is a pretty big slate. In this newsletter, all games on the board are listed below with a prop or two you can look for in each. Please do not bet all of these. Just take which analysis you like best and apply it to making good bets tonight!

There are a lot of free subscribers here. I’m going to give three FREE games of analysis tonight so you can see what you’re signing up for.

About Tonight…

• Luka Doncic expected to make his debut with the Lakers.

• Mavericks newest All Star Anthony Davis is out indefinitely with a left adductor strain suffered in his Mavericks debut.

• Hawks point guard Trae Young is is available to play tonight.

Back-to-Backs

• Hornets on second leg of back-to-back @ Nets tonight.

• Bucks on second leg of back-to-back vs. Warriors tonight.

• Blazers and Nuggets play tonight and Wednesday night.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Timberwolves at Cavaliers - 7 PM ET

Cavs -8 ➡️ -9.5

Total: 228.5 ➡️ 230.5

Cavaliers power forward Evan Mobley missed the last game against Minnesota. Jarrett Allen put up 14 points and grabbed just four boards. Against Rudy Gobert, Allen’s going to challenge him more on the glass, while Mobley stays more offensively focused. Mobley’s rebound prop is 9.5. I’d look at the under. Against the top 10 rebounding teams in the league, Mobley’s averaging 19.4 points per game, but just 8.7 rebounds. With Julius Randle still out due to injury, Mobley has the size advantage for mid range shots and on the perimeter. When you look at the last five games against Minnesota, the center tends to have double digit rebounds:

Ayton 14

Sengun 10

Vucevic 11

Power Forward Sabonis 11

Valanciunas 10

The next leading rebounder has grabbed eight or less boards. This is a bigger rebounding night for Allen, which means between him and Gobert, less boards for Mobley.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Spurs at Wizards - 7 PM ET

Spurs -11.5 ➡️ 11

Total: 235.5 ➡️ 237

There are two ways you can take advantage of props in this game. First, Spurs center Victor Wembanyama’s three point prop over 2.5 3-pointers made at -130. His threes have been down since the Spurs acquired point guard De’Aaron Fox. This is a great matchup for Wemby who has major size advantage over the Wizards. The Wizards just have Richaun Holmes, who’s not a good perimeter defender. In games against bottom 10 perimeter defenses, Wemby is averaging 4.4 3-pointers per game and 27.8 points per game. Even on the road, he’s averaging 3.9 3-pointers per game and 26.9 points per game. With such a large spread, a points prop of 25.5 scares me a bit. The Wizards allow the second most threes per game with 11 players in the last five games hitting 3+ threes against Washington.

Another way you can attack this game, De’Aaron Fox over 6.5 assists. It’s pretty juiced around -145. Since coming to the Spurs three games ago, Fox is averaging nine assists per game. He had 13 assists against the Wizards when playing for Sacramento earlier this season. The Wizards allow the third most assists per game to their opponents

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Hawks at Magic - 7 PM ET

Magic -5.5 ➡️-6

Total: 221.5

The Magic player that stood out, Franz Wagner. He’s averaging 2.9 3-pointer made per game against bottom 10 perimeter defenses. At home, that number goes up to 3.2 threes per game and 28.6 points per game. The Hawks allow the fourth most threes per game. In this morning’s premium subscription, Wagner’s three point prop is over 1.5 -128. It’s now 2.5 over +158. Don’t grab the bad number. It’s over 1.5 or nothing.

Wagner’s points prop is 27.5. When Wagner and Paolo Banchero play together, Wagner has the bigger offensive performances, while Banchero grabs boards. Whether Hawks point guard Trae Young plays or not, he’s not known for his defense. Wagner should have more scoring opportunities than Banchero, especially from outside.

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