🏈 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Happy Monday! For premium subscribers, below are the same props from this morning except I’ve included how some of the props moved.

We have two Monday Night Football games tonight. Below are the Prop Queen edges for Jets-Dolphins and Broncos-Bengals.

Don’t forget to subscribe to the Prop Queen YouTube Channel! On tonight’s show we had Mid Major Matt and Jared Block give out MNF props and a preview of the MLB playoffs. Jared & I also put together a MNF SGP.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 MNF Week 4 Props

Jets at Dolphins

7:15 PM ET

MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Rushing Yd

-120 ➡️ -128

I know the Dolphins first and foremost want to make sure Tua doesn’t get hurt, but looking at the last two years, Tua still has run with the football. He’s gone over 0.5 a rushing yard in four of five home primetime games dating back to 2021 averaging 10.8 yards per game. In the last two seasons when facing defenses that allow some of the most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, here are Tua’s numbers:

2025: @ BUF 2-for-10

2024: vs. JAX 1-for-11

The Jets have allowed the third most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this year (33). It’s why two of the three quarterbacks to face New York have gone over their rushing yards prop:

Baker Mayfield over 17.5 rushing yards with 44

Josh Allen over 34.5 rushing yards with 59

Aaron Rodgers under 0.5 rushing yard with -1

NYJ QB Justin Fields Over 1.5 Pass TD

+195 ➡️ +190

There’s value to the over. Fields did throw two touchdowns in the Steelers game. Miami has allowed an average of two passing touchdowns per game (tied for fifth most this season). Josh Allen had three and Drake Maye had two.

NYJ RB Breece Hall over 19.5 Rec Yds -125

Hall’s crushed this number when facing defenses bottom 10 against pass catching backs. Dating back to last year, he went over in five of six of those matchups. The Dolphins have allowed the third most receiving yards per game to running backs this year. It’s why four of the six backs to face the Dolphins have gone over their receiving yards prop.

Other Notes

Jets are allowing the most rush attempts per game to running backs.

Miami has allowed the fourth least pass attempts per game

Miami has allowed the third most rush attempts to quarterbacks

The Dolphins allow the fourth most receiving yards per game to tight ends, but the fifth least receiving yards to wide receivers.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 MNF Week 4 Props

Bengals at Broncos

8:15 PM ET

DEN QB Bo Nix Over 1.5 Pass TD

+100 ➡️ -115

Nix has gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns in five of his seven games when facing teams bottom 10 in passing touchdowns allowed. He had three at Cincy last year. The Bengals are tied for the fifth most passing touchdowns allowed per game (2). Two of the three quarterbacks to face the Bengals so far this season have gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns:

Carson Wentz 2

Trevor Lawrence 3

Joe Flacco 1

DEN QB Bo Nix Under 5.5 Rush Attempts

-125 ➡️ -115

Since the start of last season, when Nix is up against defenses top 10 in rush attempts allowed to quarterbacks, he’s gone under in three of five games. In primetime, Nix has gone under 5.5 rush attempts in two of three games. The Bengals are tied for second least rush attempts allowed to quarterbacks per game. All three quarterbacks to face the Bengals so far this year have gone under their rush attempts prop:

Carson Wentz under 3.5 rush attempts with 2

Trevor Lawrence under 3.5 rush attempts with 2

Joe Flacco under 2.5 rush attempts with 2

CIN QB Jake Browning Under 10.5 Rush Yds

-113 ➡️ -135

Browning’s only had one rush for one and three yards this season. It’s a small sample size, but Denver has allowed the least rushing yards per game to quarterbacks (2.67).

CIN RB Chase Brown Under 2.5 Receptions +146

Brown had just two receptions in games one and two. He had four in his last start, but now getting Denver, it’s a tough ask. The Broncos allow the fifth least receptions per game to running backs (3). Three of the four running backs to face Denver have gone under their receptions props this year:

Najee Harris under 1.5 with 0 receptions

Omarion Hampton Over 1.5 with 6 receptions

Jonathan Taylor Under 2.5 with 2 receptions

Tony Pollard Under 2.5 with 1 reception

Other Notes

The Bengals have allowed the third least rushing yards per game to quarterbacks.

The Bengals have allowed the fourth least rush attempts per game to running backs.