🏈⚾️ The Prop Queen Newsletter

Hi subscribers! Today there are two MLB Playoff games and one Monday Night Football game. Below are props for both.

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ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 NFL MNF Props

Chiefs at Jaguars

MNF at 8:15 PM ET

JAX QB Trevor Lawrence Over 3.5 Rush Att (+100)

Lawrence has gone over 3.5 rush attempts in two of three games against Kansas City since 2022. He had four, three, and five rushes in that span. In six of his last eight primetime games, Lawrence averaged 4.9 rush attempts per game, hitting the over in six of eight. The Jags’ offensive line has also allowed the lowest pressure rate in the league this season. The Chiefs are tied for the second-most rush attempts per game allowed to quarterbacks this year (7). While they try to contain a hot Travis Etienne at running back, it should allow for some open space for Trevor Lawrence to run.

KC QB Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 Pass Att (-115)

Mahomes has thrown 36+ pass attempts in seven of his last ten primetime games, averaging 36.7 pass attempts per game. The Chiefs’ running backs are generating the third-lowest explosive run rate entering Week 5. With the run game not generating much success, Mahomes will throw the football. The Jags have allowed the fifth-most pass attempts per game this season (39). Three of the four QBs to face Jacksonville went over their pass-attempt props, with Joe Burrow and his injury game being the lone exception:

Brock Purdy: Over 32.5 (finished with 38)

CJ Stroud: Over 31.5 (finished with 38)

Bryce Young: Over 31.5 (finished with 35)

Joe Burrow: 13 pass attempts (prop 36.5)

Other Stats to Know

The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game to QBs (31.3).

The Chiefs are tied for the fifth-fewest rush attempts per game allowed to RBs (18.3).

Patrick Mahomes has attempted a deep pass (20+ yards) on 12.7% of his attempts — his highest mark since 2019. Through his first four games, he’s already completed half as many deep passes as he did all last season.

The Jags are tied for the fifth-fewest rush attempts per game allowed to RBs (18.3).

The Jags have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs (63.8).

The Jaguars have played zone coverage on 82.9% of opponents’ dropbacks (fourth-highest rate in the league). When playing zone this year, the Jags have allowed 5.9 yards per attempt (fourth-fewest) with nine interceptions. Mahomes has faced zone coverage at the second-lowest rate in the NFL this season. He’s thrown for 7.4 yards per attempt against zone with zero interceptions versus 5.7 yards per attempt against man with one interception.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Dodgers at Phillies

6:08 PM ET

LAD LHP Blake Snell Under 16.5 Outs -110

Snell hasn’t gone over 16.5 outs through five career postseason games on the road. The Phillies own the sixth-best OPS, ninth-best batting average, eighth-best on-base percentage, and are sixth in slugging against lefties this year. The only concern is how bad the Dodgers’ bullpen has been — Dave Roberts may try to push Snell as long as possible. They do have an off day tomorrow, though.

PHI LHP Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Ks -133

I’m worried about the short leash with a rested bullpen. Here’s what the numbers say, though: Luzardo’s averaging 7.3 strikeouts per game at home this year, going over 5.5 strikeouts in 13 of 16 games. He had six and eight strikeouts against the Dodgers this season, too. Through five starts against LA, Luzardo has a 3.12 ERA. Lefties are 25-17 O/U on their K props, averaging five strikeouts per start against the Dodgers this season. Cristopher Sánchez just struck out eight Dodgers in Game One.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Cubs at Brewers

9:08 PM ET

CHC LHP Shota Imanaga Under 3.5 Ks -125

Imanaga owns a 7.20 career ERA in Milwaukee. The Brewers have the highest batting average in the league against lefties and the second-highest on-base percentage. Lefty starters are 18-29 O/U on their K props, averaging 4.2 strikeouts per start against Milwaukee. The lefties to hit 4+ strikeouts against the Brew Crew tend to go five to six innings. Imanaga’s outs prop is 12.5, indicating he shouldn’t go deep enough into this game to hit four strikeouts.

MIL RHP Aaron Ashby Over 0.5 Run Allowed +110

It could be worth it for the plus-money price. The Cubs own the fourth-highest slugging percentage against lefties. Sure, Ashby may not be in this game long, but he did allow at least one run in three of his four outings against the Cubs this season.