⚾️ The Prop Queen Newsletter

Hey subscribers! It’s day two of the Wild Card round of the MLB playoffs. Since the introduction of the Wild Card Series in 2022, the winner of Game One has won all 12 series - 10 via sweep.

Just a reminder about who the sportsbooks need this week and overall in the playoffs ⤵️ 

It seems there’s a heavy liability on the NL. Here’s what I learned from some sportsbooks and what they need:

FanDuel Needs: Yankees and Dodgers to win. Brewers and Phillies to lose.

DraftKings Needs: Dodgers and Red Sox to lose.

BetMGM Needs: American League to win the World Series. Biggest liabilities are Dodgers and Brewers. They’d love (for now) for the Yankees to win.

Superbook Las Vegas: Cubs to lose

I’ve previewed all Wild Card series and games below.

PROPaganda

The Most Bet on Props According to BetMGM For Today’s Games

Tigers at Guardians

Tanner Bibee Over 14.5 Outs -145

Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 Home Run +425

Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 Ks -159

Casey Mize Over 4.5 Ks -105

Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI -135

Padres at Cubs

Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Run -500

Dylan Cease Under 14.5 Outs -145

Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 HR +675

Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Home Run +575

Michael Busch Over 0.5 Home Run +450

Red Sox at Yankees

Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Home Run +275

Brayan Bello Under 4.5 Ks -149

Rob Refsnyder Over 0.5 Hit -115

Giancarlo Stanton Over 0.5 Home Run +340

Jarren Duran Over 0.5 Single +145

Reds at Dodgers

Zack Littell Under 14.5 Outs -185

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 Ks -149

Zack Littell Under 13.5 Outs -159

Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Home Run +160

Enrique Hernandez Over 0.5 Hit -110

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Tigers at Guardians

Stats to Know

The Guardians have lost 12 of their last 14 postseason games when facing elimination dating back to Game Seven of the 1997 World Series. Their lone wins were a pair of victories against the Tigers in Game Four and Five of last year’s ALDS.

Something to prove? Nearly a year after learning in the Progressive Field bullpen that he wouldn’t be on the Tigers’ ALDS roster, Mize gest the start in Game Two today.

Mize owned a 2.08 ERA in three starts against the Guardians this season - two extra inning losses and a 1-0 Tigers’ win.

The entire Tigers bullpen has had two days of rest besides Will Vest who recorded four outs yesterday on just 15 pitches.

Guardians starter Tanner Bibee was 3-0 with a 1.30 ERA in four September starts including two wins over the Tigers to end the regular season. He allowed just one run in six innings in each start. Bibee allowed just one home run in September.

The Guardians have won each of Bibee’s last seven starts against Detroit including two in last year’s ALDS. He’s 4-0 with a 1.63 ERA across tose seven outings.

The Guardians had the lowest on-base percentage of any postseason team in the Live Ball Era (since 1920) and had just four balls out of the infield yesterday in Game One.

Chase DeLauter is making his MLB debut for the Guardians today. He will be the sixth player to make his MLB debut in the postseason, though he hasn’t taken an at-bat in a game since July 11 after suffering a fractured hamate bone. This coming after Johnathan Rodriguez went 0-for-3 committing a costly first-inning error in right field yesterday.

The road team has won 11 of the 14 meetings between these teams in 2025.

Play: Casey Mize Over 13.5 Outs is -140. It’s a bit of juice, but he’s gone over in all four road afternoon games this year averaging 16 outs per game. This season, Mize has had all three starts against Detroit go over with 15, 21 and 16 outs. This number is too low facing a Guardians team that is struggling to get on-base. Plus, with the Tigers up 1-0 in the series, a potential game three with. a TBD pitcher for the Tigers, they’re going to try their best to save that bullpen.

lay: Tanner Bibee Over 3.5 hits allowed -140. Bibee allowed 5+ hits in three of four home afternoon games this year allowing 5.5 hits per start. In home games in general, Bibee allowed opponents to go over in 11 of 14 games. The Tigers are averaging just over five hits per game against starters. The only concern is the potential short leash in an elimination game.

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