This newsletter breaks down today’s NFL slate through the lens that actually matters: market movement, player incentives, defensive matchups, and historical prop performance. Every angle below is supported by usage trends, opponent-specific data, and numbers the books have adjusted — or haven’t adjusted enough. If you’re looking to understand why certain props stand out today, this is the full data-backed roadmap.
ARIEL’S CORNER
🟨 PIT at CLE
Line: PIT -5.5 → -3
Total: 35.5 → 34.5
🔻 QB Suppression Spot
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 183.5 pass yds (-112)
Avg 178.5 yds vs top-10 pass defenses this season
A spot where Rodgers went over with 235 passing yards last game (so why in round two is it so low?! 🎣).
CLE allows 2nd-fewest pass yds/game (185.6)
60% of QBs went under vs CLE
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MID MAJOR MATT’S CORNER
ICYMI: Mid Major Matt & I discussed some underrated NFL props for this Week 17 slate. Matt mentioned one market I didn’t even know existed!
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