🏀 The Prop Queen NBA Daily Guide

I’ve done all the work so you don’t have to. Below is every game in the NBA for tonight. I’ve gone through every game and every position seeing which matchups work best for each prop in each game. I also included key storylines and injuries that would impact your bets.

TRADE NOTE: Wizards center Jonas Valanciunas got traded to the Kings today.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 7 PM ET Slate

MILWAUKEE BUCKS AT CHARLOTTE HORNETS

Spread: Bucks -9 ➡️ -10.5

Total: 218.5 ➡️ 222.5

Bucks allow the sixth most rebounds per game.

I looked at Hornets center Mark Williams over rebounds. The number felt spot on at 11.5. He averages 11.8 rebounds in his nine games against teams bottom 10 in rebounds allowed. The last five leading rebounders against the Bucks averaged just over 12 rebounds per game.

Bucks allow the sixth most threes per game.

The only player I’d even look at is Miles Bridges. He’s the only one who can shoot the three that’s not injured. Bridges is getting the shots up with just under eight 3-pt attempts per game in his last five.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 7 PM ET SLATE

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS AT DETROIT PISTONS

Spread: -4.5 ➡️ -6.5

Total: 234.5 ➡️ 237

NOTE: CLEVELAND IS ON THE SECOND LEG OF A BACK-TO-BACK

Cavaliers allow the 10th least points per game.

With Cleveland on the 2nd leg of a back to back I’d stay away from unders.

Pistons allow the third least rebounds per game.

Even though this stat comes from NBA.com I don’t trust it against the Trees.

Pistons allow the eighth most threes per game.

Cavs leading three point shooters are Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Max Strus.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 7 PM ET SLATE

SAN ANTONIO SPURS at ATLANTA HAWKS

Spread: Spurs -4.5

Total: 241.5

Note: Looks like we’re getting the De’Aaron Fox Spurs debut.

Spurs allow the fourth most rebounds per game.

With Clint Capela and Jalen Johnson out Onyeka Okongwu has been next man up. However, in the games without Capela and Johnson, Okongwu is only averaging 8.8 rebounds in five games. The prop has already dropped from 10.5 to 9.5 rebounds on FanDuel.

Hawks allow the third most points per game.

Guards have had a lot of success recently against the Hawks. In the last five games, the highest scoring point/ shooting guard averaged 24.6 points. De’Aaron Fox points prop is 22.5 tonight. Against teams bottom 10 in points allowed in the paint, Fox is averaging 24.4 points per game this season. No surprise, with not much size underneath, the Hawks are in this category. Fox put up 31 and 28 poinst against Atlanta earlier this season too.

Hawks allow the ninth most rebounds per game.

Spurs center Victor Wembanyama’s prop is at 12.5 rebounds. He’s only averaging 11 rebounds per game against teams bottom 10 in rebounds allowed. There isn’t a major challenger for boards on the other side, plus Fox is a major offensive boost. I just didn’t love how in the last five games Gobert and Sengun only had 10 rebounds. On the flip side, Allen had 15 for the Cavs.

Hawks allow the fourth most assists per game.

I didn’t know how Fox would impact this market for the Spurs but if you look at the last five games against Atlanta:

Cunningham - 14 assists

Haliburton - 9 assists

Garland - 7 assists

VanVleet - 6 assists

Edwards - 4 assists

Hawks allow the third most threes per game.

Wemby and Devin Vassell are the one’s I’d look to prior to Fox’s arrival. Again, with Fox’s first game with the Spurs tonight, not sure how that’s impacting these numbers, but those are the top three players to look for to take advantage of the Hawks bad perimeter defense.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 7:30 PM ET SLATE

WASHINGTON WIZARDS AT BROOKLYN NETS

Spread: -1 ➡️ -4

Total: 217.5 ➡️ 217

Note: The Nets are on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Note: Wizards center Jonas Valanciunas got traded to the Kings today.

Wizards allow the most points per game

The only shooter I’d trust is D’Angelo Russell. His prop is 15.5.

Wizards allow the most rebounds per game

Nets center Nic Claxton’s rebound prop is 8.5.

Wizards allow the third most assists per game.

Ben Simmons leads the Nets with seven assists per game. D’Lo is right behind him with 6.8. Both their props are 6.5.

Wizards allow the second most threes per game.

Cam Johnson leads the Nets averaging 3.2 threes per game. His prop is only 2.5 tonight.

Nets allow the ninth least rebounds per game

Valanciunas just got traded today.

Nets allow the 10th most assists per game.

Jordan Poole and Malcolm Brogdon lead the Wizards in assists. Poole’s prop is 5.5. He averages 4.8. Brogdon’s prop is 3.5 with heavy juice to the over. He averages 4.1.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 7:30 PM ET SLATE

MIAMI HEAT AT PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

Spread: Heat -1.5 ➡️ +1.5

Total: 216.5 ➡️ 220

Note: Miami and Philly are on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Heat allow the seventh least points per game

Tyrese Maxey is the only 76ers player that the Heat probably have to worry about with so many injuries in Philly. He just had a big game last night against Dallas posting 33 points. His number is pretty high at 31.5. In the last five games, only Donovan Mitchell went over that number against Miami with 34.

Heat allow the seventh most rebounds per game

With Embiid and Drummond likely out. The next best rebounders on the 76ers are Guerschon Yabusele and Kelly Oubre Jr.

Heat allow the ninth most assists per game

Tyrese Maxey leads the 76ers averaging 6.2 assists per game.

76ers allow the seventh most assists per game

Tyler Herro leads the Heat averaging 5.5 assists per game. He’s had 7+ assists in six of the last seven games without Jimmy Butler.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 7:30 PM ET SLATE

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES AT TORONTO RAPTORS

Spread: Grizzlies -7 ➡️ -10.5

Total: 241.5 ➡️ 236.5

Note: Toronto is on the second leg of a back-to-back

Grizzlies allow the eighth most points per game.

With so many injuries in Toronto, Scottie Barnes and Gradey Dick are their leading scorers.

Grizzlies allow the 10th least rebounds per game.

Without Jakob Poeltl, Barnes leads the Raptors with eight rebounds per game.

Grizzlies allow the ninth most threes per game.

Gradey Dick leads the Raptors averaging 2.2 threes per game.

Raptors allow the seventh most points per game.

The Grizzlies leading scorers are Jaren Jackson and Ja Morant. Jackson’s averaging 23.3 points per game. Morant’s only averaging 20.5 points per game, but that number on the road against bottom 10 defenses goes up to 23.5.

Raptors allow the 10th most threes per game.

For future reference, I LOVED Desmond Bane in these spots. He was a hidden gem of mine a few years ago against bad perimeter defenses. Unfortunately, he’s hurt. Luke Kennard or Jaren Jackson Jr. are the Grizzlies best three point shooters without Bane in the lineup.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 8 PM ET SLATE

CHICAGO BULLS AT MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Spread: Timberwolves -11.5

Total: 227.5 ➡️ 226.5

Note: Chicago is on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Note: Minnesota is on the front leg of a back-to-back.

Bulls allow the second most points per game.

Anthony Edwards leads the TWolves averaging 26.5 points per game. With Julius Randle out, Naz Reid is next up averaging 13.8 ppg.

Bulls allow the second most rebounds per game.

Defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert matches up great against Bulls center Nikola Vucevic. Gobert had 16 and 10 rebounds last year against him. The year before Gobert grabbed 17 boards against Vuc.

Bulls allow the most assists per game.

Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley lead the TWolves averaging 4.5 assists per game. In the last month, Edwards is averaging 5.6 assists per game versus Conley’s 4.6. Both their props are 5.5 juiced to around -130.

TWolves allow the fourth least points per game.

Bulls leading scorers are Nikola Vucevic and Coby White. In their first matchup, Vucevic put up 25. Last year, he had 24 and 19. White had 24 points in the last game against Minnesota. Zach LaVine just got traded to Sacramento, but didn’t play that last game against Minnesota.

TWolves allow the seventh least rebounds per game.

The last time Vucevic put up double digit rebounds against Gobert was two seasons ago he had 11. Otherwise it’s always below 10. His prop tonight is 9.5.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 9 PM ET SLATE

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS AT UTAH JAZZ

Spread: Warriors -6.5

Total: 228.5 ➡️ 224

Note: Warriors are on the front leg of a back-to-back.

Warriors allow the ninth least points per game

Lauri Markkanen and John Collins lead the Jazz in scoring. Markkanen averages 19.3 ppg and Collins 18.1. In the last month, Markannen is averaging 18.5 ppg. Collins has only played in five games in that span. He’s averaging 20.4 ppg. At home, they both average just over 19 points.

Warriors allow the eighth most rebounds per game.

Jazz center Walker Kessler leads the team in rebounds averaging 10.6 per game. Collins is next with 8.7. Kessler had nine rebounds against Golden State back in October and didn’t play in their last meeting on Jan. 28th. Kessler’s averaging 11 rebounds per game against teams bottom 10 in rebounds allowed. His prop is 10.5

Jazz allow the fourth most points per game.

The two leading scorers on the Warriors are Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins. Curry’s averaging 22.1 ppg and Wiggins 17.6. On the road, both their averages drop by a point. Steph’s prop is 24.5. On the road against a bottom 10 defense, he’s still only gone over that number once this year. Steph’s done much better at home.

Jazz allow the sixth least rebounds per game.

Draymond Green has only played twice in the last ten games. Kevon Looney leads the Warriors in rebounds. Since Jan. 10 when Draymond started to miss some time, Looney’s averaging 7.4 rebounds per game.

Jazz allow the fifth most assists per game.

Warriors assist leader is Steph Curry at 6.7. Draymond is behind him at 5.1. If Draymond plays, you can look to his rebounds + assists.

Jazz allow the fourth most threes per game.

Steph Curry and Buddy Hield are the two best three point shooters on the Warriors both averaging just over three 3s per game.

 ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 9 PM ET SLATE

NEW ORLEANS PELICANS AT DENVER NUGGETS

Spread: -10 ➡️ -10.5

Total: 240 ➡️ 239

NOTE: Denver’s on the front leg of a back-to-back.

Pelicans allow the fifth most points per game.

Nuggets best shooters are Jokic, Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Jokic and MPJ have the better numbers at home.

Pelicans allow the third most rebounds per game.

Jokic didn’t play in the last matchup back in November against New Orleans. This season he’s averaging 13.7 rebounds per game against teams bottom 10 in rebounds allowed. Against teams bottom 10 in points and rebounds allowed, Jokic is averaging a triple double. 35.7 pts, 14.3 reb, 10.8 ast.

Pelicans allow the sixth most assists per game.

Jokic leads the team averaging 10.7 assists.

Pelicans allow the fifth most threes per game.

Michael Porter Jr. is the team’s best three point shooter.

Nuggets allow the sixth most points per game.

Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy lead the Pelicans in scoring.

Nuggets allow the fifth least rebounds per game.

It’s always hit or miss choosing between Missi and Zion.

Nuggets allow the most assists per game.

Zion and McCollum’s assists numbers are up a little since Dejounte Murray was announced out for the year. No one really stands out though.

Nuggets allow the seventh most threes per game.

Trey Murphy and CJ McCollum lead the way in 3s.

 ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 9:30 PM ET SLATE

PHOENIX SUNS AT OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Spread: Thunder -13.5 ➡️ -13

Total: 224.5 ➡️ 229

Suns allow the 10th most rebounds per game.

OKC center Isaiah Hartenstein is off to one of the best starts of his career. He’s averaging 13.9 rebounds per game against defenses bottom 10 in rebounds allowed. I saw his prop go from 11.5 over +100 to -135. The last five leading rebounders against the Suns, averaged 12 rebounds per game.

Thunder allow the least points per game.

With no KD, stopping Devin Booker will be the only way tonight. In 10 games without KD this season, Booker’s averaging 25.2 ppg. One of those games was against OKC where Booker only had 12 points. Here are the other performances for Booker against a top 10 defense without KD:

@ OKC - 12 points

@ ORL - 25 points

vs. ORL - 17 points

@ MIN - 44 points

@ MIA - 21 points

vs. NYK - 33 points

Thunder allow the fifth most rebounds per game

Suns center Nick Richards is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game since joining the Suns. This number did drop from 9.5 to 8.5 so be a little cautious about that overly juiced 8.5.

 ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 10 PM ET SLATE

ORLANDO MAGIC AT SACRAMENTO KINGS

Spread: Kings -5.5

Total: 216.5 ➡️ 219.5

Note: Shooting guard Zach LaVine making his Kings debut.

Note: Both the Magic and Kings are on the first leg of a back-to-back.

Magic allow the second least points per game.

Things change now with LaVine in the lineup. Prior to his arrival it was Sabonis and DeRozan leading the way in scoring. This games a watch and see game especially since LaVine and DeRozan have three years of history in Chicago together.

Magic allow the second least rebounds per game.

Sabonis leads the Kings in rebounds with 14.5. He had 23 and 14 rebounds last year versus Orlando though, so probably a stay away.

Kings allow the ninth most points per game.

Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero lead the Magic in scoring. It’s more small forwards and guards that have had recent success against the Kings. Plus, Wagner’s road numbers are better than Banchero’s.

Kings allow the most threes per game.

With Jalen Suggs out, I don’t really trust anyone in Orlando to put up threes.