⚾️ The Prop Queen Newsletter

Hi subscribers! I’m making tonight’s newsletter free. There are just five games tonight in MLB. I have Matchups to Watch plus some batter and pitcher props.

All premium subscribers have access to the MLB Prop Spreadsheet as well. This includes strikeout, outs, hits allowed and earned runs props. Access the spreadsheet here. If you want to learn how to use the spreadsheet, you can see the tutorial here.

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ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Matchups to Watch

Good Matchups

Gleyber Torres - .333 (2-6) with 2 HR vs. Bailey Ober

Over 1.5 HRR (-120) - Cashed in four of five games in Minnesota and 10 of 13 overall against the Twins since the start of last year.

Zach McKinstry - .438 (7-16) with 3 2B, HR vs. Bailey Ober

Francisco Lindor - .571 (4-7) with 2 2B, HR vs. Bryce Elder

Over 0.5 Run (-135) - Cashed in 59% of Lindor’s home games and eight of the last 10.

Josh Bell - .333 (3-9) with 2 2B, HR vs. Jesus Luzardo

Royce Lewis - .400 (2-5) with 2B, HR vs. Tarik Skubal

Over 0.5 Hit (-140) - Cashed in 60% of home games against lefties. When facing a lefty at home at night, Lewis went over in 67% of games and eight of the last 10.

Bad Matchups

Javier Baez - .067 (1-15) with 9 Ks vs. Bailey Ober

Luis Garcia Jr. - .125 (2-16) with 2B, 2 Ks vs. Jesus Luzardo

CJ Abrams - .111 (1-9) with 5 Ks vs. Jesus Luzardo

Under 0.5 single (-125) - Cashed the under in six of his last 10 at home against a left and 58% of games overall this season in that spot.

Byron Buxton - .133 (2-15) with 2 HR, 8 Ks vs. Tarik Skubal

Ryan Jeffers - .048 (1-21) with HR, 9 Ks vs. Tarik Skubal

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Hitter Prop

(NYM) Juan Soto Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI -140

Braves at Mets - 7:10 PM ET

Juan Soto has had a good week hitting .300. When playing at home at night against a right hander, Soto’s averaging 2.2 HRR.

It’s a small sample size, but Soto is 2-for-3 with a single and homer against Braves starter Bryce Elder. Since the start of last year, 75% of Soto’s games went over 1.5 HRR against Atlanta.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Hitter Prop

(ARI) Corbin Carroll Under 2.5 Total Bases -115

Diamondbacks at Rockies - 8:40 PM ET

Carroll’s gone under 2.5 total bases in 69% of games this season when playing on the road. In his last 10 away games, he’s averaging 1.8 total bases.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Pitcher Props

I’ll be honest, I didn’t LOVE anything for tonight in the pitcher market; however, there are two pitchers that I lean to the over on the K props.

MIN RHP Bailey Ober Over 5.5 Ks +130

Tigers at Twins - 7:40 PM ET

In Ober’s home starts, he hasn’t seen many lineups with high strikeout rates. In fact, none of his home games were against a team that averages over five strikeouts per game against righty starters like the Tigers do. They’re averaging 5.2 strikeouts per righty starter. Two starts ago, Ober struck out seven Mariners. That team has a lower K rate than the Tigers. For the plus money play, it could be worth a shot seeing the most strikeout prone lineup of Ober’s season in Minnesota.

ARI LHP Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 Ks -130

Diamondbacks at Rockies - 8:40 PM ET

Altitude always scares me, but last September, E-Rod punched out 11 Rockies at Coors. This number is fishy low for facing a Rockies team averaging 5.2 strikeouts per game against lefty starters. Since the All Star Break, only two of the seven southpaw starters to face Colorado went over 4.5 strikeouts. That scares me a bit, but E-Rod has had at least five Ks in six of his last 10 including three of four on the road.