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Happy Sunday! I’ve included some NBA prop charts for the early games below. I’ll be on VSIN today from 4-7 PM so I’m hoping to get the later games done and sent out a little later. I just wanted to get some info out before the earlier games today.
Reminder: Only basic and premium subscribers can see the entire newsletter. Blazers at Cavs will be for all subscribers, including free members. Basic and premium will also see prop breakdowns of Bulls at Pacers & Thunder at Spurs.
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 Blazers at Cavs - 3:30 PM ET
Centers vs. Cavs
Portland’s center Donovan Clingan has played 17 games this year without DeAndre Ayton. Ayton’s out for at least one month with a calf injury. In four of the last five games against Cleveland, opposing centers have been held to under 10 points. Here’s how Clingan’s done without Ayton:
CLINGAN WITHOUT AYTON | POINTS | REBOUNDS |
|---|---|---|
OVERALL (17 GAMES) | 7.5 PPG | 9.7 REB |
VS. TOP 10 DEFENSE (9 GAMES) | 7.3 PPG | 9.1 REB |
VS. TOP 10 REBOUNDS ALLOWED (5 GAMES) | 9 PPG | 13.2 REB |
Since the Cavs are top 10 in points and rebounds allowed to their opponents, I’d lean to Clingan under points.
Cavs Without Donovan Mitchell
Cavs shooting guard Donovan Mitchell is out today (load management). The Cavs have played three games this year without Mitchell. Here’s who benefits:
GAMES W/O MITCHELL | GARLAND | ALLEN | MOBLEY |
|---|---|---|---|
3 GAMES | 30 PPG 3.3 REB 8.7 AST | 15 PPG 14.3 REB 3 AST | 24.7 PPG 10.3 REB 4.3 AST |
PROPS | PTS: 23.5 REB: 2.5 AST: 7.5 | PTS: 12.5 REB: 10.5 AST: N/A | PTS: 20.5 REB: 9.5 AST: 3.5 |
Small sample size, but it makes sense Mobley would take on a more offensive role losing the Cavs leading scorer. Mobley averages 18.6 ppg overall this season so we do see an increase with Mitchell out. Since the Blazers don’t have much size in addition to a below average center in Clingan, I’d look to Mobley props today.
Other props that stand out-
Garland’s assists: He averages 6.7 overall but 8.7 without Mitchell going over 7.5 assists in two of the three games without him.
Jarrett Allen rebounds: He averages 10.2 overall, but 14.3 without Mitchell. Allen has gone over 10.5 rebounds in all three games without Mitchell. If Mobley takes on a more offensive role today, it gives Allen more boards.
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