🏀 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Afternoon Basketball Edition

Author

Ariel Epstein
March 13, 2025

Hi PQ Subscribers! There are only five games on the slate tonight in the NBA. I tried to find an edge in most of them.

Heads up: Tomorrow there will be no newsletter. I will be traveling.

Free subscribers will get access to a Wizards at Pistons. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter including games:

Lakers at Bucks

Nets at Bulls

Magic at Pelicans

Kings at Warriors

About Last Night…

Where PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:

  • Celtics guard Derrick White had a great game putting up 22 points going over his 14.5 points prop.

  • 76ers guard Quentin Grimes had another strong performance without Maxey, Embiid and Paul George going over his 18.5/19.5 points prop with 29 points. That prop even dropped yesterday from 19.5 đź”˝ 18.5.

  • Another great game for Clippers center Ivica Zubac on the second leg of a back-to-back without Kawhi and Powell. Zubac put up 26 pts with 14 rebounds going over his points prop and rebounds prop. This was another prop that dropped from 19.5 points to 17.5 points, yet still went over. Zubac’s rebounds prop was 12.5.

  • James Harden went over his 5.5 rebound prop with 8 rebounds.

  • Rockets guard Jalen Green went over his points and rebounds props yesterday with 29 points and 7 rebounds. Green’s points prop went up from 20.5 to 21.5 throughout the day and his rebounds prop was 4.5. Keep this trend in mind going forward in games without Amen Thompson.

  • Dillon Brooks also went over his points prop of 13.5 for Houston. He put up 19 points.

Where PQ Newsletter was WRONG:

  • Well for starters, Porzingis didn’t play.

  • LaMelo Ball did not go over his 25.5 points prop. He just missed it by a bucket with 25 points.

  • James Harden just went under his 25.5 points prop with 24 points. That points prop went up yesterday from 24.5 to 25.5 and still went under.

  • Harden’s assist prop YET AGAIN went over. It dropped from 9.5 to 8.5 yesterday, but Harden still had 11 assists.

  • Dillon Brooks did not go over his 3.5 rebounds prop. He grabbed just 1 board.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Wizards at Pistons - 7 PM ET

Pistons vs. B10 Rebounding Teams

The Wizards have allowed the most rebounds per game since the All-Star break. Overall this season, the Wizards have allowed the second most rebounds per game to their opponent. I’ve taken some of the Pistons’ starters and threw them in a chart for their averages against other teams bottom 10 in rebounds allowed.

Reminder, these two played on Tuesday. I always go with the motto: Whatever didn’t hit last game, that should’ve, likely will hit in game two:

DET VS. TEAMS B10 REBOUNDS ALLOWED

CADE

HARRIS

DUREN

THOMPSON

OVERALL

21 GAMES

24.8 PPG

6.4 REB

9.5 AST

20 GAMES

16.4 PPG

6.1 REB

1.9 AST

20 GAMES 

12.8 PPG

12.6 REB

3.1 AST

10 STARTS

11.8 PPG

5.8 REB

2.8 AST

HOME

11 GAMES

24 PPG

6.4 REB

9.6 AST

10 GAMES

16.2 PPG

5.1 REB

1.6 AST

11 GAMES

13.7 PPG

13.6 REB

2.9 AST

6 GAMES

10.8 PPG

6.7 REB

AST

PROPS

PTS: 27.5 ⬇️ 26.5

REB: 5.5

AST: 9.5 ⬇️ 8.5

PTS: 14.5

REB: 6.5

AST: N/A

PTS: 14.5

REB: 12.5

AST: 2.5

PTS: 10.5

REB: 5.5

AST: 2.5

Here’s how the Pistons did against the Wizards on Tuesday:

Cade: 27-8-10

Duren: 15-13-0

Hardaway Jr.: 11-4-1

Thompson: 8-5-1

Harris: 12-8-1

I said it Wednesday morning and I’ll say it again. Tobias Harris numbers indicate he should’ve gone over his points prop on Tuesday and he didn’t. Usually, it mean he’d go over it tonight.

Since Duren and Cade had good games on Tuesday, I’m going to stay away from them.

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