- The Prop Queen
- Posts
- 🏀 The Prop Queen Newsletter Part 1
Afternoon newsletter time! In honor of the last full slate of NBA games (until after the All Star Break) FREE SUBSCRIBERS can access analysis for a couple of tonight’s games. In this afternoon’s newsletter, I’ll provide:
NBA futures awards update via BetMGM
Trends with & without star players (who knows who will even play tonight)
Matchup analysis beneficial for certain props
This morning, premium subscribers got early access to insights featuring games without a back-to-back and an updated look at the 76ers with or without Joel Embiid chart. All of that is listed below with updated prop numbers and some back-to-back matchups you can take advantage of.
NBA Futures Update via BetMGM:
Do you fade the public or are they right?
Regular Season MVP
Highest Ticket % - Nikola Jokic
Highest Handle % - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Biggest Liability - Jayson Tatum
Odds leader - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -600
Rookie of the Year
Highest Ticket % - Zach Edey
Highest Handle % - Zach Edey
Biggest Liability - Bronny James
Odds Leader - Stephon Castle +190
Most Improved Player of the Year
Highest Ticket % - Jalen Williams
Highest Handle % - Norman Powell
Biggest Liability - Franz Wagner
Odds Leader - Cade Cunningham -145
Sixth Man of the Year
Highest Ticket % - Payton Pritchard
Highest Handle % - Payton Pritchard
Biggest Liability - Payton Pritchard
Odds Leader - Payton Pritchard -160
About Last Night…
If you followed the newsletter yesterday, these are the talking points that would have helped you make some money:
Tyrese Maxey averaging about eight less points per game with Embiid. Maxey had 5 pts, 5 reb and 3 ast last night going under his 27.5 pts prop.
The BIG game from Karl Anthony Towns against the Pacers with 40 pts, 12 reb, 5 ast going well over his 37.5 P+R prop (went 🔼 to 38.5 yesterday afternoon).
An off game for Jalen Brunson who had just 8 pts, 2 reb, 7 ast with a points prop that dropped from 28.5 ➡️ 27.5.
Devin Booker goes over 5.5 assists against another bottom 10 defense. The Grizzlies have gone five straight allowing 8+ assists to a player.
Were you the victim of a bad number?
Tyus Jones had 11 pts last night vs. MEM. If you got over 10.5 pts yesterday morning you win. If you took the bad number late, it was a loser.
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 76ers at Nets - 7:30 PM ET
76ers -3.5
Total 212.5
In yesterday’s newsletter, I posted a chart regarding the 76ers with and without All Star center Joel Embiid. Those stats also included how each player did against teams bottom 10 in points and rebounds allowed.
In today’s update, I’m going to post updated numbers for with and without Embiid against top 10 defenses and rebounding teams. The 76ers are 3-point favorites at the Nets tonight. Brooklyn is top 10 in points and rebounds allowed this season.
WIth the 76ers on the second leg of a back-to-back, after facing the Raptors last night, who knows if Embiid will play?! It’s good to have info on both for when the announcement comes.
Games Without Joel Embiid
Games WITHOUT Embiid | TYRESE MAXEY | PAUL GEORGE | KELLY OUBRE JR. | ANDRE DRUMMOND | Guerschon Yabusele | PF/C AGAINST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OVERALL | 32 GAMES 29.2 PPG 3.2 REB 5.8 AST | 17 GAMES 19.1 PPG 5.5 REB 5.1 AST | 34 GAMES 16.1 PPG 6.6 REB 1.9 AST | 15 G 7.7 PTS 9.3 REB | 22 GAMES 21.5 PTS 7.1 REB | 35 GAMES 17.5 PTS 10.2 REB |
VS. TOP 10 POINTS ALLOWED | 10 GAMES 25.3 PPG 3.3 REB 5 AST | 5 GAMES 19.8 PPG 5 REB 5 AST | 11 GAMES s13.5 PPG 7 REB 1.9 AST | 3 GAMES 7.3 PPG 10 REB 1 AST | 10 GAMES 13.3 PPG 6.4 REB 2.7 AST | |
VS. TOP 10 REBOUNDS ALLOWED | 13 GAMES 27.8 PPG 3.4 REB 5.6 AST | 7 GAMES 17.3 PPG 5.9 REB 6.4 AST | 14 GAMES 14.2 PPG 6.1 REB 2.4 AST | 7 GAMES 8.1 PPG 8.7 REB 0.7 AST | 10 GAMES 13.5 PPG 6.2 REB 2.7 AST | |
VS. TOP 10 PTS+REB ALLOWED | 8 GAMES 23.5 PPG 3.4 REB 4.9 AST | 4 GAMES 22.5 PPG 6 REB 5.8 AST | 8 GAMES 13.5 PPG 6.1 REB 2.1 AST | 3 GAMES 7.3 PPG 10 REB 1 AST | 7 GAMES 12.3 PPG 6 REB 3 AST |
Games With Joel Embiid
(Playing full minutes)
Games WITH Embiid | JOEL EMBIID | TYRESE MAXEY | PAUL GEORGE | KELLY OUBRE JR. | PF/CENTERS AGAINST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OVERALL: | 15 GAMES 26.8 PPG 9.2 REB 4.7 AST | 12 GAMES 23.3 PPG 3.7 REB 7 AST | 14 GAMES 13.5 PPG 4.9 REB 3.5 AST | 13 GAMES 10.2 PPG 6.1 REB 1.6 AST | 15 GAMES 15.1 PPG 8.1 REB 2.8 AST |
VS. TOP 10 DEFENSES | 6 GAMES 21.2 PPG 9 REB 3.7 AST | 3 GAMES 21.7 PTS 3 REB 8.3 AST | 6 GAMES 18 PPG 5 REB 3.8 AST | 4 GAMES 5.5 PPG 5.8 REB 1 AST | |
VS. TOP 10 REBOUNDING TEAMS | 5 GAMES 23.2 PPG 7 REB 4.6 AST | 3 GAMES 25.7 PPG 1.7 REB 6.7 AST | 5 GAMES 17.2 PPG 4.4 REB 3.2 AST | 4 GAMES 8.3 PPG 5.8 REB 1.3 AST | |
VS. TOP 10 PTS+REB ALLOWED | 3 GAMES 20.3 PPG 7.7 REB 4.3 AST | 1 GAME 18 PTS 2 REB 7 AST | 3 GAMES 19.7 PPG 6 REB 4.7 AST | 2 GAMES 5 PPG 5 REB 0.5 AST |
ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 Spurs at Celtics - 7 PM ET
Celtics -8.5
Total 232.5 ➡️ 233
Celtics All Star Jayson Tatum’s points prop is on the move
Points Prop: 26.5 🔼 27.5
Rebounds Prop: 7.5
Points+Rebounds Prop: 35.5
With Spurs center Victor Wembanyama up against Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis, that already gives Tatum a size advantage everywhere else on the floor. The Spurs don’t have a wing defender with the size and agility to contain Tatum. He can create shots from anywhere.
Against teams bottom 10 in rebounds allowed, Tatum is averaging 28.1 ppg, 9.9 reb and 4.8 ast. In these matchups at home, Tatum’s average does 🔻 to 25 ppg. The Spurs allow the fourth most rebounds per game to their opponents.
Last five rebounding leaders vs. SAS:
WAS F Kyshawn George 7 reb
ORL SF Franz Wagner 12 reb & PF Paolo Banchero 7 reb
CHA F Moussa Diabate 15 reb & SF Miles Bridges 7 reb
ATL PF Onyeka Okongwu 12 reb & SF De’Andre Hunter 10 reb
MEM C Zach Edey 14 reb & PF Jaren Jackson Jr. 6 reb
Comparing Tatum’s numbers to Porzingis’ against bottom 10 rebounding teams, Porzingis is averaging 19.7 ppg, 7.7 reb, 2 ast.
Unlike Tatum, Porzingis’ numbers in these spots go ⬆️ at home.
3 games vs. teams B10 in rebounds allowed:
Porzingis: 24.3 ppg, 10 reb
Porzingis points prop is 19.5 and rebounds prop is 7.5.
🔥 Spurs at Celtics cont…
I also did a deep dive into big men against Porzingis. The Celtics allow the fourth least points per game to their opponents. Now that the Spurs have De’Aaron Fox, it takes the pressure off Wemby to perform offensively and defensively. In 26 games against Porzingis (when he plays 20+ minutes) opposing bigs are averaging 13.9 points, 10.2 rebounds and 2.6 ast.
Wemby’s points prop is 22.5 and rebounds is 11.5. The only center to put up 20+ against the Celtics in the last five games is Bam Adebayo (22 pts). Wemby is averaging 22.3 ppg against top 10 defenses, but just 10.1 rebounds. On the road versus a top defense, Wemby’s points go up to 25.5, but rebounds drops to 6.9 per game. My only concern is not enough data with Fox. They’ve played one game against a team top 10 in points allowed, Orlando.
Wemby @ ORL: 18 pts, 9 reb, 4 ast
The Celtics also allow the third least assists per game to their opponents. Again, it’s only been four games together, but in that one game against a legit defense in Orlando:
De’Aaron Fox: 9 pts, 3 reb, 9 ast
Chris Paul: 6 pts, 2 reb, 5 ast
In the last five against Boston, here’s how assists leaders did:
@ MIA: Wiggins 5 / Bam 4 / Mitchell 4
@ NYK: Brunson 5 / Hart 3
vs. DAL: Exum 5 / Gafford 5
@ CLE Mitchell 6 / Garland 3
@ PHI: Council 8 / Maxey 6
Fox assist prop: 5.5 o-128 u+100
CP3 assist prop dropped: 6.5 o-115 u-111 đź”» 5.5 o-120 u-102
Subscribe to Prop Queen Sports to read the rest.
Gain access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.
Subscribers Can Gain Access To:
- • The morning PQ newsletter so you don't miss analysis of the best lines
- • The late afternoon PQ newsletter with fresh picks for lines closer to game time
- • Exclusive MLB prop spreadsheet hitting around 60 percent each season
- • Direct access to the Prop Queen Sports team asking questions not answered in the newsletter
- • Daily prop betting guide decreasing your time narrowing down props