🏀 The Prop Queen NBA Daily Guide

I’ve done all the work so you don’t have to. Below is every game in the NBA for tonight. I’ve gone through every game and every position seeing which matchups work best for each prop in each game. I also included key storylines and injuries that would impact your bets. Apologies for the delay today!

ALERT

The trade deadline was today at 3 PM ET. Some of the big name trades:

LUKA DONCIC ➡️ LAKERS

MARK WILLIAMS ➡️ LAKERS

ANTHONY DAVIS ➡️ MAVERICKS

DE’AARON FOX ➡️ SPURS

JIMMY BUTLER ➡️ WARRIORS

ZACH LAVINE ➡️ KINGS

BRANDON INGRAM ➡️ RAPTORS

JUSUF NURKIC ➡️ HORNETS

BOGAN BOGDANOVIC ➡️ CLIPPERS

KYLE KUZMA ➡️ BUCKS

KHRIS MIDDLETON ➡️ WIZARDS

MARCUS SMART ➡️ WIZARDS

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 7:30 PM ET Slate

Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics

Spread: Celtics -11 ➡️ -12

Total: 228.5 ➡️ 232.5

Note: Anthony Davis is NOT supposed to make his debut tonight. He is expected to start on Saturday for the Mavericks.

Celtics allow the fifth least points per game.

Look to Mavs center Daniel Gafford unders. He’s only averaging 12.9 ppg against top 10 defenses this year. Centers such as Alperen Sengun (11 pts) and Nikola Vucevic (6) struggled against Boston in the last five games. I know Gafford just put up 19 against Boston on Jan. 25th. When two teams play each other within two weeks of each other, I expect game script to be different. Gafford’s prop is set at 15.5 over -102 under -125.

Celtics allow the 10th most rebounds per game.

That said, Gafford also had 15 rebounds in that last game. Since Jan. 15, Gafford’s been hot on the boards averaging 10.1 per game. With power forward PJ Washington out, the loss of Luka Doncic to the Lakers, Gafford is the next man up for grabbing rebounds. Gafford’s prop is set at 9.5 over -106 under -120.

Celtics allow the third least assists per game.

Mavericks point guard Kyrie Irving is the team’s assists leader with Luka gone. He’s averaging 4.2 assists per game since Luka stopped playing. Kyrie’s assists prop is 4.5 -145 range. In the last five games against the Celtics, the opposition’s assist leader is averaging 6.6 assists per game.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 8:00 PM ET SLATE

Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves

Spread: Rockets -1 ➡️ Timberwolves -1

Total 214.5

Note: Minnesota is on the second leg of a back-to-back

Rockets allow the sixth least points per game.

Twolves shooting guard Anthony Edwards leads the team averaging 26.5 points per game. His prop is 28.5, yet against Houston, four of the last five lead guards have hit below this number.

Nets Keon Johnson - 22 pts

Knicks Jalen Brunson - 42 pts

Nets D’Angelo Russell - 18 pts

Grizzlies Desmond Bane - 24 pts

Hawks Trae Young - 21 pts

Edwards put up 29 and 24 points against the Rockets earlier this season; however, both games were with Julius Randle, the team’s second best shooter.

Rockets allow the seventh least rebounds per game.

Timberwolves’ rebound leader Rudy Gobert’s rebound prop is set at 10.5 over -111 under -115 at FanDuel. Gobert had 16 and 9 rebounds against Minnesota this season. He averages 10 rebounds per game on the second leg of a back-to-back. In the last five games against Houston, no big man has had 10+ rebounds.

Rockets allow the second least assists per game.

Both Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley’s assists prop is 4.5. Conley’s is juiced to the over a bit more at -142, while Edwards is -128. Edwards is averaging 5.8 assists in the last 10 games going over 4.5 assists in six of his last 10 games. Mike Conley is avearging 5.9 assists in his last 10 games going over 4.5 in 7 of his last 10. If narrowed down to the last five, Edwards has only gone over in two of the last five and one of those games was without Conley. Conley has gone over in four of his last five.

Timberwolves allow the fourth least points per game.

The TWolves defense has been great. I get worried about second legs of back-to-backs, but the TWolves are top 10 in points allowed versus forwards and guards this season according to NBA.com. One other note, I looked at all seven games where the TWolves were on the second leg of a back-to-back, not one of the centers put up 20+ points. Rockets center Alperen Sengun’s prop is 19.5. He did have 22 and 38 against Minnesota earlier this year. Maybe Gobert gets em this time. Third times a charm?

Timberwolves allow the eighth least rebounds per game.

Against top 10 rebounding teams, Sengun has gone over his prop of 9.5 rebounds in 10/13 games. Amen Thompson has gone over his prop of 8.5 rebounds in 7/16 games. Despite “tired legs” the TWolves have still limited the opposition’s leading rebounder to 9.3 rebounds/game while the TWolves are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Timberwolves allow the fifth least assists per game.

Amen Thompson’s assists have picked up since Fred VanVleet’s been out. His prop is 5.5 over +104 under -128. Sengun’s assists prop at 4.5 is -150 to the over. No surprise, Sengun tends to dish the ball out more when up against actual solid big men, like a Rudy Gobert.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 9:00 PM ET SLATE

Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets

Spread: Nuggets -4.5 ➡️ -6.5

Total 218.5

NOTES: Both the Magic and Nuggets are on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Magic allow the second least points per game.

Despite the Nuggets playing nine back-to-backs this year, this is the first time they’re seeing a tough defense on a second leg. Lead guards in the last five games are averaging 22.4 points against the Magic. Jamal Murray’s prop is 20.5. He had 19 in the last matchup on Jan. 19th. Some bigger name centers like Bam Adebayo (26 pts) and DeAndre Ayton (22 pts) had good offensive performances in the last few games against the Magic. Jokic’s prop is 29.5 with the under juiced to -120. Jokic had just 20 points against Orlando in the last matchup.

Magic allow the second least rebounds per game.

On the second leg of a back-to-back for both teams, I wouldn’t mind looking at some overs on rebounds, especially looking at the Magic’s last few games. Multiple games with double digit rebounders.

Magic allow the least assists per game.

Jokic and Murray are the assists leaders. Jokic prop is at 9.5. Murray is 5.5. Heat PG Tyler Herro is the only player in the last five games to have double digit assists against the Magic. I’d expect missed shots tonight on the second leg of a back to back against a solid Magic defense. I mean come on they just played the Pelicans last night, the fourth worst defense in the league.

Nuggets allow the seventh most points per game.

Guards have had success against the Nuggets in the last few games. Since picking up more playing time, Magic point guard Cole Anthony put up 24 and 18 points in the second leg of back-to-backs this season. His prop is only 13.5 tonight. With a questionable KCP, Anthony is an interesting name to watch.

Nuggets allow the fifth least rebounds per game.

This one’s a tough one to cap. Against top 10 rebounding teams this year, we only saw two games with Banchero and Bitadze together. Banchero is averaging seven rebounds per game in those spots. His prop is 6.5. Bitadze’s prop is 7.5. He’s averaging 7.8 against top 10 rebounding teams.

Nuggets allow the most assists per game.

Playing against good rebounding teams means dominant big men who protect the paint. When Banchero drives, he’s getting more attention in these spots forcing him to dish the ball out to open shooters or dump it off inside. I see him playing that role tonight as he has in the past with at least five assists in all four games against top rebounding opponents. His prop is 4.5 over -148.

Nuggets allow the seventh most threes per game.

I looked at KCP’s threes, but he’s questionable tonight and too inconsistent for me especially on the road.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 10 PM ET SLATE

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers

Spread: Lakers -6.5

Total 221.5 ➡️ 222.5

Note: Warriors are on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Note: Newest Laker, Luka Doncic, is targeting Monday for debut.

Warriors allow the eighth most rebounds per game.

Until we know the status of Mark Williams, TBD on this one.

Warriors allow the eighth least points per game.

LeBron’s averaging 29.9 ppg in the last three regular seasons against the Warriors. His prop is 27.5. I’d be weary of betting a points prop under versus a defense on the second leg of a back to back.

Lakers allow the eighth most assists per game.

Warriors assists leader Steph Curry is averaging seven assists per game dating back to the start of the 2022-2023 season. His prop is 5.5.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 10 PM ET SLATE

Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers

Spread: Kings -1.5 ➡️ -1

Total 230.5 ➡️ 231

Note: Kings are on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Note: Kings newest center Jonas Valanciunas is expected to make his debut.

Kings allow the ninth most points per game.

Portland shooting guard Anfernee Simons is averaging 18.1 ppg against bottom 10 defenses. His prop is 19.5. Blazers’ small forward Jerami Grant is averaging 16.6 points per game against bottom 10 defenses; however at home, that number goes up to 18.3 points. His prop is 14.5.

Kings allow the most threes per game.

Simons and Grant are the team’s best three point shooters. Simons is averaging 3.5 threes per game and 20.3 points overall against bad perimeter defenses. Grant is averaging 2.4 threes and 16.4 points in those spots. His threes drop off a little at home (1.9).

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 10:30 PM ET SLATE

Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Clippers

Spread: Clippers -4 ➡️ -4.5

Total 227.5 ➡️ 229

Pacers allow the 10th most points per game.

Clippers leading scorers are Norman Powell and James Harden. Powell’s averaging 26.7 ppg against bottom 10 defenses. Harden’s averaging 24.3 ppg in these spots. Guards are having a lot of success against the Pacers since the Pacers struggle in the paint.

Clippers allow the third least points per game.

Clippers allow the third least rebounds per game.

Numbers are spot on with both Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam props at 6.5. Turner averages 6.6 and Siakam 6.2 rebounds against top 10 rebounding teams.

Clippers allow the sixth least assists per game.

Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton’s prop is 7.5. Even against top 10 defenses, he’s averaging 10 assists per game. He had 11 and 9 assists against the Clippers last season.