⚾️🏀 The Prop Queen Newsletter

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For this morning’s newsletter, I’ve included my long list of K props and prop trends in MLB & WNBA according to Rithmm.

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ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 K Props to Watch

MIA RHP Eury Perez Under 5.5 Ks -136

Twins at Marlins - 12:10 PM ET

Perez has only pitched in four games this season, but just one was against a low K rate lineup. Perez had zero strikeouts in that start against Washington. Now he gets a Twins team averaging 4.2 Ks/game against righty starters. Those starters are 24-43 o/u their K prop against Minnesota this season.

COL LHP Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 Ks +125

Astros at Rockies - 3:10 PM ET

I definitely have trust issues with Freeland, but he’s gone over 3.5 Ks in six of nine starts against high K rate lineups (4/5 at home). Lefties are averaging 5.1 Ks/start against Houston with four of the last seven southpaws going over 3.5 Ks since the start of June.

CHC RHP Cade Horton Over 3.5 Ks -137

Guardians at Cubs - 8:05 PM ET

Horton’s only faced two high K rate lineups:

@ MIA 3 K in 5.1 IP

vs. COL 6 K in 6 IP

I like that the start he had at home went over. I know it was against a bad Rockies team; however, nine of the last 10 righty starters to face Cleveland have gone over 3.5 Ks.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Prop Trends in MLB

These are the top prop trends according to RITHMM’s algorithm.

Shohei Ohtani Under 2.5 Total Bases -140

White Sox at Dodgers - 10:10 PM ET

Ohtani’s gone under 2.5 total bases in 65% of his last 20 home games. He’s also gone under 2.5 in three of his last five overall. Ohtani is 1-for-6 against White Sox starter Aaron Civale.

Mike Trout Under 1.5 Total Bases -130

Angels at Braves - 7:15 PM ET

Trout’s gone under 1.5 total bases in 70% of his last 20 games and eight of his last 10. 65% of Trout’s last 20 road games went under as well. Trout’s never faced Bryce Elder so advantage pitcher. He’s hitting .250 through two games at SunTrust Park.

Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 Hit -145

Giants at Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM ET

Suarez has had at least one hit in 65% of his last 20 games and seven of his last 10. The same numbers apply to just Suarez’ home games. Suarez is hitting .364 with 5 RBIs in 11 at bats against Giants lefty Robbie Ray.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Prop Trends in WNBA

These are the top prop trends according to RITHMM’s algorithm.

Jordin Canada Under 14.5 P+R +100

Storm at Dream - 7:30 PM ET

Canada's gone under 14.5 P+R in eight of her last 10 games. At home, she’s gone under in three of her last five.

Natasha Howard Under 20.5 P+R -115

Aces at Fever - 7:00 PM ET

Howard’s gone under in six of her last 10 games overall. At home, Howard’s gone under in 88% of games.

Paige Bueckers Under 10.5 R+A -118

Mercury at Wings - 8:00 PM ET

Bueckers has gone under this in 62% of games this season. At home, she’s gone under in four of five.