⚾️🏀 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Afternoon MLB & WNBA Props for July 29th, 2025

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ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 Matchups to Watch

Good Matchups

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - .400 (6-15) with 2 2B vs. Charlie Morton

Over 0.5 Run Scored (-115) - Hit in 56% of road games including nine of the last 10. It’s also hit in 67% of games at Camden Yards through nine games dating back to last year.

Tommy Pham - .462 (6-13) with 2 2B, HR vs. Justin Verlander

Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+100) - Cashed in six of the last 10 road games at night. Had four HRR last night in San Fran.

Jorge Polanco - .429 (6-14) with HR vs. Luis Severino

Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-130) - Cashed in seven of his last 10 road games.

Travis d’Arnaud - .450 (9-20) vs. Patrick Corbin

Taylor Ward - .462 (6-13) with 2B, HR vs. Patrick Corbin

Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-130) - Hit the over in four of his last five at home against lefties. Against southpaws overall this season, Ward’s averaging 2.6 HRR going over in 65% of games against lefty starters.

Martin Maldonado - .333 (7-21) with 2 2B, 3B, HR vs. Sean Manaea

Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+100) - Hit in five straight against lefties and six of the last 10.

Manny Machado - .368 (7-19) with 3 2B vs. Sean Manaea

Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-125) - Has gone over this in 67% of games against lefties averaging 2.5 HRR. It’s also cashed in eight of Machado’s last 10 against southpaw starters.

Xander Bogaerts - .467 (7-15) with 2 2B, HR vs. Sean Manaea

Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-110) - Cashed in eight of his last 10 starts against a lefty starter averaging 2.6 HRR.

Ronald Acuña Jr. - .500 (6-12) vs. Seth Lugo

Jonah Heim - .500 (5-10) vs. Yusei Kikuchi

Bad Matchups

Andrew McCutchen - .125 (3-24) with 2 2B, 6 Ks vs. Justin Verlander

Byron Buxton - .095 (2-21) with HR and 9 Ks vs. Lucas Giolito

Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150) - Very juiced, but Buxton’s gone under this in seven of his last 10 home night games.

Fernando Tatis Jr. - .143 (2-14) with 6 Ks vs. Sean Manaea

Jurickson Profar Jr. - 0-11 with 6 Ks vs. Seth Lugo

Marcus Semien - .211 (8-38) with 2B, 2 HR, 9 Ks vs. Yusei Kikuchi

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