🏀 The Prop Queen Newsletter

Afternoon Edition

Author

Ariel Epstein
April 16, 2025

Happy Wednesday! If you’re a premium subscriber and tailed my Spencer Strider under 6.5 Ks bet, congrats! You’re just as insane as me. Since this morning’s newsletter, I’ve added another K prop, a fishy line and prop analysis for both NBA play-in games.

Free subscribers will get access to a prop breakdown of Heat-Bulls. Only basic and premium subscribers can see today’s entire newsletter including games:

Mavericks-Kings

MLB Hitters To Watch

K Props

Fishy Lines

About Last Night…

Where the PQ Newsletter was RIGHT:

  • Magic power forward Paolo Banchero’s points prop of 29.5 was too high. He only put up 17 points against the Hawks.

  • Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant’s points prop was too high at 26.5. He posted 22.

  • Mets starter Tylor Megill went under his 6.5 K prop fanning just 3 Twins.

  • White Sox starter Sean Burke went under his 4.5 K prop with 2 Ks against the A’s.

  • The Milwaukee Brewers upset the Detroit Tigers shutting them out 5-0 for the fishy line of the day.

Where the PQ Newsletter was WRONG:

  • Magic small forward Franz Wagner did not go over his 24.5 points prop. He had just 13 points against Atlanta.

  • Grizzlies power forward Jaren Jackson Jr. did not go over his 20.5 points prop. He had 18 points against Golden State.

  • Grizzlies shooting guard Desmond Bane went over his 19.5 points prop leading the Grizz with 30 points.

  • Marlins right hander Connor Gillispie did not go under his 3.5 K prop. He had 6 Ks despte giving up 8 runs to the DBacks.

  • Athletics lefty Jeffrey Springs did not go over his 5.5 K prop. He had just 4 strikeouts against the White Sox.

ARIEL’S CORNER

🔥 NBA PROPS

Heat at Bulls

7:30 PM ET

The Bulls have been a bad defense and rebounding team all season. Here’s how the Heat bigs do against teams bottom 10 in points and/or rebounds allowed:

BAM

WARE

OVERALL TOGETHER

14 GAMES

21.4 PPG

10.1 REB

4.6 AST

11.1 PPG

8.9 REB

1.6 AST

VS. B10 DEF IN PTS AND REB ALLOWED

8 GAMES

21.6 PPG

9.5 REB

5.3 AST

11.6 PPG

9.8 REB

1.1 AST

PROPS

PTS: 19.5

REB: 9.5

AST: 4.5

PTS: 9.5

REB: 8.5

AST: N/A

Bam’s put up 20+ points in 10 straight playoff games dating back to 2023. With Ware playing the center position now, I can’t see anyone in Chicago stopping Bam. He put up 22+ points in two of three games against the Bulls this year.

At the same time, Ware grabbed 12 boards in two of the three against Chicago. Those are my leans, but use the chart to help you make the best picks for you.

On the Bulls side, Josh GIddey’s points prop is 18.5. He put up 24, 26 and 28 points this year against the Heat.

Subscribe to Prop Queen Sports to read the rest.

Gain access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

Subscribers Can Gain Access To:

  • • The morning PQ newsletter so you don't miss analysis of the best lines
  • • The late afternoon PQ newsletter with fresh picks for lines closer to game time
  • • Exclusive MLB prop spreadsheet hitting around 60 percent each season
  • • Direct access to the Prop Queen Sports team asking questions not answered in the newsletter
  • • Daily prop betting guide decreasing your time narrowing down props