⚾️ The Prop Queen Newsletter

MLB FUTURES (National League)

Hi all PQ subscribers! We have regular season baseball today! Well, it happened this morning at 6:10 AM ET with the game in Tokyo.

I’m still on vacation and probably in the middle of the ocean somewhere so I wasn’t able to get in bets or do research on the game. To be honest, I protest these fake Opening Day games. It’s great being home and getting baseball so early in the morning, but it totally takes away from the real Opening Day. Actually, it doesn’t. I will NOT give them that power over me!

Anyway, in case you missed yesterday’s newsletter, the American League futures are up on the website. Today, it’s time for the National League.

NL Futures

National League East

Philadelphia Phillies

This is the only team I trust to win the division. I’ve seen the number at +215. The Phillies have one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball with Wheeler and Nola. Their lineup is awesome with Realmuto, Harper, Kyle Schwarber etc. The Phillies bullpen got better. They added Jordan Romano and now a full season of Tanner Banks after getting him from the White Sox.

I don’t trust the Braves. Their starting pitching is suspect. Spencer Strider is coming off season ending elbow surgery and Chris Sale never stays healthy a full season like he did last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sale took a step back in a CY Young hangover. As for the young Spencer Schwellenbach, how does he adjust in his sophomore season? The Braves will get back Ronald Acuña Jr., but he’s torn both his ACLs now. Will he even look the same?

As for the Mets, they barely have any starting pitching. In case you need a refresher, their starting rotation is Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea (who’s hurt), Frankie Montas (hurt), Clay Holmes (who’s been in the bullpen for the Yankees) and David Peterson. Sure they added Juan Soto to the lineup. Maybe the lineup gets them into the playoffs, but in this tough division, you need pitching and the Mets don’t have it.

New York Mets

The only way I would bet the Mets is Kodai Senga to win Comeback Player of the Year. I saw this around 7/1. Two years ago, Senga was fifth in ERA in all of baseball and eighth in strikeouts in the National League. Most CY Young winners have 200+ Ks and a sub-3 ERA. In 2023, Senga had a 2.98 ERA and 202 strikeouts. If the Mets aren’t in contention for the division, it’ll be tough to hand Senga a CY Young, even if he carries this starting rotation. They’ll give Senga the Comeback Player of the Year as a consolation prize for a great season.

NL Futures

National League Central

Cincinnati Reds

According to BetMGM, one of the book’s biggest liabilities this season is the Cincinnati Reds. They’re actually the book’s biggest liability to win the National League. It’s a nice payout at +5000 and they’re a fun team, but I don’t see them winning the NL. Their lineup is good. I’m worried about the starting rotation. I’m glad we’ve seen the maturity of Hunter Greene, but there’s no one else I’d trust between Nick Martinez, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and Andrew Abbott.

I’m going player prop. Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz over 53.5 stolen bases. For someone who had 35 in his rookie season then 67 in his sophomore season, I’ll go back to it. This lineup got even better in the last two years. Matt McLain is back after season ending shoulder surgery last year. Gavin Lux comes over from the Dodgers. Jeimer Candelario is back for a second season in Cincy. It’s going to be GREAT having De La Cruz on the base path throwing off pitchers with really good hitters coming to the plate. They’re all scrappy. I love it.

NL Futures

National League West

Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks suffered the unfortunate World Series hangover last year and didn’t even make the playoffs. I’m not worried about it. Arizona added Corbin Burnes in the offseason. I’d say they have the best 1-2 punch in baseball with Burnes and Gallen. Plus, Merrill Kelly is your number three.

The DBacks added power to the lineup with Josh Naylor. Corbin Carroll should rebound. Let’s remember, in 2023 he hit .285 with 54 stolen bases. Ketel Marte is also coming off one of the best seasons of his career. I’m a bit nervous about their bullpen, but hopefully they make some midseason additions.

There’s just no chance I bet the Padres again. It’s like three years in a row that I’ve lost money on San Diego in the futures market. I trust the DBacks pitching, lineup and experience to get them into the playoffs at -110.