🏀 My Two Favorite NBA Props for Tonight
Tough slate with a lot of large spreads and injuries, but two spots I really like based on matchup data, role, and very clear splits. Let’s get into it.
⭐ Brandon Ingram — Under 5.5 Rebounds (+114)
Position: SF
Game: TOR -1.5 @ CHA
This one is all about road splits + matchup.
Key trends:
Ingram averages one fewer rebound per game on the road
Against top-10 teams in rebounds allowed:
Overall: 6.0 rebounds
On the road: 3.3 rebounds
At home: 6.5 rebounds
Game-by-game vs top-10 rebounding defenses:
vs. HOU: 8
vs. LAL: 7
vs. CHA: 6
@ CHA: 6
vs CHA: 9
vs. BOS: 4
vs BOS: 4
vs. DEN: 8
@ NYK: 1
vs NYK: 6
@ SAS: 3
He just had 9 rebounds on December 5th vs Charlotte, but that game was at home, where his rebounding numbers are drastically stronger.
Now flip the context:
Charlotte allows the 3rd-fewest rebounds per game
69% of small forwards have gone UNDER their rebound prop vs Charlotte
This matchup + road split is exactly where Ingram’s rebounding dips.
📉 Everything points to the under here.
🐺 Karl-Anthony Towns — Under 32.5 Points + Rebounds (-118)
Position: C
Game: LAC at NYK -4.5
This is a combination of usage without Josh Hart and elite defensive matchup.
Without Josh Hart:
Under in 4 of 6 games
Averaging 29.3 Points + Rebounds
Vs top-10 teams in points + rebounds allowed:
Averages:
20.3 points
7.0 rebounds
2.5 assists
27.3 P+R
Game logs vs top-10 defenses:
Bvs. OS: 26–13–3
@ BOS: 29–7–2
@ DET: 6–1–1
@ SAS: 20–7–4
Additional matchup notes:
In all 3 games vs the Clippers without Josh Hart, KAT stayed under 32.5 P+R
Clippers:
10th-fewest points per game allowed
8th-fewest rebounds allowed
Over the last 10 games:
71% of centers have gone UNDER their points prop vs LAC
📺 Want More NBA Props?
I’ll be embedding today’s YouTube segment at the bottom of this newsletter with
Mr. Dream’s NBA Props of the Night — make sure to check that out for the rest of the slate.
Ariel Epstein, known as the Prop Queen, turned her passion for fantasy sports and prop betting into a career. After years of working for other media companies and sportsbooks, it’s time to share her knowledge, preparation and analysis with other sports bettors.
