⚾️ The Prop Queen Newsletter

K PROP TRENDS (National League)

Hi all PQ subscribers! Yesterday, I gave out the trends for pitcher’s strikeout props against American League lineups. Today, I’ll go through the National League.

ICYMI: If you click the top left corner of the webpage where you see the Prop Queen logo, it’ll take you back to the main page. There, you can see yesterday’s newsletter on the American League.

To start the season, it’s good to have some numbers to work off of. Then, we will adjust. The strikeout prop spreadsheet works off lineups. Do starters tend to go over or under more against different lineups? How much do righty-lefty splits impact those over/unders? You’d be surprised. After doing this spreadsheet for the last five years, I’d say any lineup averaging 5+ Ks against a starting pitcher is high. Lineups averaging 4.3 Ks or less is typically very low.

K PROP CORNER

National League East

Atlanta Braves

Overall: Starting pitchers were 89-66 o/u vs. ATL avg. 5.3 Ks/start.

Righties: 61-50 o/u vs. ATL avg. 5.2 Ks/start

Lefties: 28-16 o/u vs. ATL avg. 5.3 Ks/start

*Despite the Braves being known as a winning team, they strike out A LOT. The books clearly couldn’t adjust high enough with 55 percent of righties and 64 percent of lefties going over their strikeout prop against Atlanta.

Miami Marlins

Overall: Starting pitchers were 67-88 o/u vs. MIA avg. 4.8 Ks/start

Righties: 40-61 o/u vs. MIA avg. 4.7 Ks/start

Lefties: 27-27 o/u vs. MIA avg. 5.1 Ks/start

*The Marlins were bad last year. Righties were about average against Miami. Lefties did strike out more Marlins batters; however, the book expected more strikeouts anyway from a bad lineup. It’s why lefties were at .500 when betting their K props and righties went under more. The book kept booking pitchers at the “spot on” number for lefties, but didn’t account for a bit of a lower K rate from the Marlins lineup versus righties.

New York Mets

Overall: Starting pitchers were 81-83 o/u vs. NYM avg. 4.8 Ks/start

Righties: 58-59 o/u vs. NYM avg. 4.9 Ks/start

Lefties: 23-24 o/u vs. NYM avg. 4.7 Ks/start

*The Mets weren’t a team I bet K props against much. They were right around average and their K props were typically spot on. Big market team with average K numbers. Nothing exciting here.

Philadelphia Phillies

Overall starting pitchers were 76-79 o/u vs. PHI avg. 4.9 Ks/start

Righties: 54-49 o/u vs. PHI avg. 5.1 Ks/start

Lefties: 22-30 o/u vs. PHI avg. 4.5 Ks/start

*Similar to the Mets, the Phillies are a big market team that had tough numbers to go against. Righty pitchers racked up more strikeouts than lefties, but the numbers for their K props were pretty accurate. The best approach is looking for a big time southpaw like a Chris Sale or Tarik Skubal and taking their unders. Most likely, the book won’t take into account the dip in strikeout rate vs. lefties.

Washington Nationals

Overall starting pitchers were 65-89 o/u vs. WAS avg. 4.5 Ks/start

Righties: 47-61 o/u vs. WAS avg. 4.5 Ks/start

Lefties: 18-28 o/u vs. WAS avg. 4.3 Ks/start

*The Nationals were fun to bet unders against, especially lefties. Overall, starters were going under their K props for a while against Washington. The books kind of caught on in the second half against righties, but lefties continued to do great for unders. For starting pitcher K props against the Nats, it’s under or nothing.

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