🏈 Mid Major Matt's Newsletter

Welcome to my college football newsletter where I will give you angles and tidbits that will hopefully make you a profitable bettor. There will be plays in here from time to time but for the most part it'll be packed with information. 

MATT’S CORNER

🔥 Buffalo at Minnesota

Thursday August 28th, 2025 - 8:00 PM ET

One of my most profitable angles begins on Thursday when Minnesota hosts Buffalo. For years the Golden Gophers have been traditionally slow starters having among the worst first quarter offenses in football.

Last year, Minnesota outscored their opponents 59-28 in 12 regular season games while in 2023 they were outscored 68-44. They are taking on Buffalo who is a very veteran team and was in the top 30 in 1st quarter defense.

The books have set the number at 9.5 heavily juiced to the over. I'd wait and see if there are any 10's before kickoff and hope this trend continues. 

MATT’S CORNER

🔥 Other Things To Watch In FBS Games

Thursday August 28th, 2025

East Carolina @ NC State, 7pm ET - The Wolf Pack will be without guard Val Erickson and DL Brandon Cleveland for the 1st half due to ejections from the Military Bowl which was the last game of the season for these two. Erickson is not a projected starter, but Cleveland is a huge piece of the defensive line. The Pirates got the win in that hotly contested game. Dave Doeren is 11-1 in openers while being the coach of NC State. 

Jacksonville State @ UCF, 7pm ET - A lot of changes in this one with Rich Rodriguez leaving Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks return just 28% of their offensive production and 19% of their defense. On the other side, UCF is almost completely rebuilding their roster and have selected Cam Fancher as their starting QB. Fancher has been very inconsistent in his college career so we'll see what Scott Frost can do for him. 

Wyoming @ Akron, 7pm ET - Wyoming is traveling over 1,000 miles for this game playing their first time in Ohio since 2011 when they took on Bowling Green. Akron is going to be a fascinating team to watch because they already have a postseason ban. They will not play in a bowl game even though it most likely wasn't going to happen anyways. The Zips are 7-3 ATS as home underdogs under Joe Moorehead. 

Nebraska vs. Cincinnati @ Arrowhead Stadium, 9pm ET - Nebraska has lost four of their last five openers and is 1-4 ATS the last four seasons on the road as a favorite. Now this isn't a straight road game, but it's not being played at Memorial Stadium. These will be two "play on" teams for me as the season goes along so I'll be watching this game intently. 

MATT’S CORNER

🔥 Things To Watch In FCS vs. FBS Games

Thursday August 28th, 2025

Bowling Green and Lafayette both are returning just one starter on defense. Each squad has a lot back on offense so there could be plenty of points put up in this one. The Falcons won their FCS game 41-17 last season and have high hopes for transfer QB Drew Pyne. 

Missouri will be playing both Beau Pribula and Sam Horn at quarterback in their game against Central Arkansas. Coach Drink is 1-3 ATS in games against FCS opponents. They are over four touchdown favorites against a Bears team that lost 34-31 to Arkansas State last season. Finally, the Tigers are hosting Kansas next week in a much more important game so they could pull starters early to get ready for that. 

Oklahoma State will also be playing two quarterbacks with TCU transfer Hauss Hejny named the starter, but Zane Flores will play as well. The Cowboys have a road game at Oregon next week, but Mike Gundy is coming off a 3-9 season. He is just 2-2 ATS the last four years in FCS contests. UTM played two FBS games last year technically, losing 41-6 to Kansas State and 31-24 to Missouri State who made the leap this season. 

Houston is hosting Stephen F. Austin and Willie Fritz is 5-1 ATS in games against the FCS as a head coach. The Cougars haven't played an FCS opponent since 2021 when they beat Grambling 45-0 as a 40 point favorite. Stephen F. Austin went 7-5 last year and lost 35-20 to North Texas. 

Sean Lewis begins year two of Aztec Fast as San Diego State hosts Stony Brook. The Aztecs beat East Texas A&M last year 45-14, but failed to cover the 32 point spread. Lewis did well in 2021 and 2022 with his Kent State offense in FCS games. The Seawolves went 8-4 last year and lost 45-3 to Marshall in their FBS tilt. Billy Cosh's offense was very good in the CAA so there could be a lot of points in this one as well if he finds some decent QB play. 

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