This is the second newsletter of the day, which means it’s time to look into the late afternoon and night slate. We did talk contract incentives earlier — and yes, those still matter — but when games matter, I care far more about game environment, motivation, and matchup. Incentives were saved for spots where the game script or defensive matchup made sense.
Now let’s get into the 4 PM ET window and Sunday Night Football.
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ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 Prop of the Day for FREE Subscribers.
PIT RB Kenneth Gainwell Under 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Road split: 12.7 rec yards per game vs. 32 rec yds at home
Detroit allows the 2nd-fewest RB receiving yards
63% of RBs have gone under their receiving yards prop vs. DET
Number’s inflated & public caught on — matchup says under.
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