Happy Football Sunday! It’s Week 16 in the NFL and below is my long list of player props for today’s games.
Some of these matchups mean everything for playoff positioning and division races… and others mean absolutely nothing — except for the players.
It’s officially contract incentive season.
And in the irrelevant games?
That’s where it matters the most.
Time to be selfish when your team’s out of the Hunt (pun fully intended as you’ll see below 👀). There are even a few meaningful games where incentives are still very much in play thanks to defensive mismatches.
Good luck today 💰
1 PM slate only — late afternoon & night games coming soon.
(Shout out CBS Sports for the contract incentive info).
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ARIEL’S CORNER
🔥 Prop of the Day for FREE Subscribers
TB -2.5 ➡ -3 at CAR
Total 45.5
WOW — a 1 PM game that actually matters for both teams.
CAR RB Rico Dowdle Over 13.5 Receiving Yards -110
CAR RB Rico Dowdle OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• $1M bonus at 1,350 scrimmage yards
• Currently at 1,237 (needs 113)
• On a one-year $2.75M deal so he could make half his salary in bonuses.
TB allows the most receiving yards per game to RBs (55.9)
• 65% of RBs go over vs TB
Dowdle vs similar defenses:
• DAL — 56
• MIA — 28
• LAR — 21
• SF — 36
Ground may be tough — air is wide open.
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