Tonight is all about NBA props.
Some games on this slate are being shaped by key injuries, while others come down to very specific matchup edges by position. That’s where the value usually shows up — and that’s exactly what this cheat sheet is built to highlight. Use this as a roadmap to quickly identify which positions tend to succeed (or struggle) in each matchup before you ever look at a prop board.
And a reminder: if you upgrade to Premium, this cheat sheet will be fully filled out later this afternoon with my long list of props, plus all the research and data I use to narrow down the best edges.
🏀 NBA JAN 13th PROP CHEAT SHEET
⏰ 7:30 PM
PHX at MIA (-1)
Total: 230.5
Injury Report:
MIA: G Norman Powell — Questionable (lower back soreness)
PHX Defensive Tendencies
5th least PPG allowed
Power Forwards: 67% under points
4th least assists allowed
Shooting Guards: 63% under assists
Small Forwards: 62% under assists
Point Guards: 60% under assists
MIA Defensive Tendencies
9th most PPG allowed
PG & SF: 54% over points
Centers: 52% over points
3rd most rebounds allowed
PG: 68% over rebounds
10th most 3s allowed
Suns top 3PT shooters (in order):
Grayson Allen, Jalen Green, Royce O’Neale, Collin Gillespie, Dillon Brooks
⏰ 8:00 PM
CHI at HOU (-13)
Total: 224.5
Injury Report:
CHI: PG Josh Giddey — Out
CHI: SG Coby White — Out
HOU: SF Tari Eason — Out
CHI Defensive Tendencies
5th most PPG allowed
Centers: 52% over points
8th most rebounds allowed
PG: 53% over rebounds
8th most assists allowed
SF: 51% over assists
9th most 3s allowed
Starters with most 3s:
Kevin Durant & Jabari Smith Jr.
HOU Defensive Tendencies
3rd least PPG allowed
PG: 67% under points
SG: 68% under points
Least rebounds allowed
PF: 63% under rebounds
Centers: 60% under rebounds
2nd least assists allowed
SG: 61% under assists
MIN at MIL (-3.5)
Total: 226.5
Injury Report:
MIN: SG Anthony Edwards — Out (right foot)
MIN: C Rudy Gobert — Suspended
MIL: C Myles Turner — Questionable (illness)
MIN Defensive Tendencies
10th least assists allowed
SG have gone under the most: 58% under assists
DEN (-2.5) at NOLA
Total: 232.5
Injury Report:
DEN: Jamal Murray — Questionable (ankle/illness)
DEN: Spencer Jones — Probable
DEN: Aaron Gordon — Probable
NOLA: Herbert Jones — Out
DEN Defensive Tendencies
7th least rebounds allowed
PF: 55% under rebounds
NOLA Defensive Tendencies
3rd most PPG allowed
SF: 60% over points
7th most rebounds allowed
SG: 62% over rebounds
2nd most assists allowed
PG: 58% over assists
Centers: 60% over assists
2nd most 3s allowed
Active 3PT shooters:
Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway
SAS at OKC (-8)
Total: 229.5
Injury Report:
SAS: Devin Vassell — Out
OKC: Isaiah Hartenstein — Out (calf)
SAS Defensive Tendencies
7th least PPG allowed
SF & PF: 60% under points
9th least rebounds allowed
PF: 60% under rebounds
OKC Defensive Tendencies
Least PPG allowed
SF: 59% under points
5th least assists allowed
Centers: 62% under assists
PG / SG / SF: 57% under assists
4th most 3s allowed
Top 3PT shooters:
Julian Champagnie, De’Aaron Fox
(Devin Vassell normally #1, but he’s out)
⏰ 10:30 PM
ATL (-4) at LAL
Total: 230.5
Injury Report:
ATL: Zaccharie Risacher — Questionable (knee)
LAL: Luka Doncic — Questionable
ATL Defensive Tendencies
8th most PPG allowed
SF: 55% over points
PF: 54% over points
5th most rebounds allowed
PF: 68% over rebounds
6th most assists allowed
SF: 57% over assists
LAL Defensive Tendencies
3rd least rebounds allowed
PG: 62% under rebounds
Centers: 58% under rebounds
⏰ 11:00 PM
POR at GSW (-10.5)
Total: 227.5
Injury Report:
POR: Deni Avdija — Out (back)
POR: Jerami Grant — Doubtful (Achilles)
POR Defensive Tendencies
6th most PPG allowed
SF: 64% over points
GSW Defensive Tendencies
9th least PPG allowed
SG: 58% under points
PF: 57% under points
If you want every prop I’m targeting, plus why I like or avoid each one, make sure you’re on Premium — this cheat sheet gets fully filled out later today with all the research and data so you can find the right edges without guessing.
Ariel Epstein, known as the Prop Queen, turned her passion for fantasy sports and prop betting into a career. After years of working for other media companies and sportsbooks, it’s time to share her knowledge, preparation and analysis with other sports bettors.
